Date: Saturday 6th April 2019
The Grand National takes place this Saturday at Aintree and, as always, I have gone back to my tried and tested trends and ratings approach to narrow down this year’s field.
Using the original Turf Talk methodology, based on the old Computerace principles, I have combined historical trends with race profiling to produce a set of ratings for this year’s leading contenders.
The aim, as always, is to reduce a very competitive field into a small group of realistic contenders and from there identify a main selection along with two back-up picks.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Tiger Roll | 220 |
| Rathvinden | 206 |
| Anibale Fly | 198 |
| Vintage Clouds | 186 |
| Lake View Lad | 181 |
| Walk In The Mill | 176 |
| Joe Farrell | 170 |
These ratings are derived from a blend of historical Grand National trends, chase experience, class, official mark, trainer and jockey profile, and general suitability for a race of this nature.
Historically, the winner usually comes from towards the top end of the ratings and that is the route taken again this year.
MAIN SELECTION
Tiger Roll (8/1 available)
The defending champion tops the Turf Talk Ratings once again and it is hard to get away from his profile.
He has already proven he handles the unique demands of this race and comes here with a similar preparation to last year. His class, jumping and ability to travel strongly through a race make him a major player once again.
Carrying more weight is never ideal, but his overall profile still makes him the one to beat.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Rathvinden (10/1 available)
A very solid alternative and one that rates highly across the board.
He has strong staying credentials, arrives in good form and looks to have been laid out for a race like this. His profile fits the modern trends well and he looks sure to be involved if getting into a good rhythm early.
He rates as a major danger to the main selection.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Anibale Fly (12/1 available)
Another runner that makes the shortlist on the ratings and has solid claims.
He has already shown he can perform well in this race and his overall profile suggests he is capable of going close again. He stays well, handles big fields and looks well suited by the demands of the National.
He may not quite have the same upside as the top two, but he still makes plenty of appeal.
SUMMARY
This looks another fascinating renewal of the Grand National, but the ratings suggest that Tiger Roll, Rathvinden and Anibale Fly are the three that stand out most strongly.
Tiger Roll gets the nod as the main selection, with Rathvinden and Anibale Fly looking the best of the alternatives in a race where experience, stamina and jumping will once again be crucial.
