2:20 Ascot – Valiant Stakes 2026
The Valiant Stakes brings together an interesting field of fillies and mares over Ascot’s straight mile, combining established performers with several progressive three-year-olds.
The leading ratings contenders include Touleen, Skydance, Kon Tiki, Arisaig, Pina Sonata, Sukanya, Esna and last year’s winner Cheshire Dancer.
Touleen holds the strongest overall ratings profile with an RPR of 123, a Topspeed figure of 109 and an official rating of 112. Skydance is given considerable respect as a progressive three-year-old with more improvement potentially still to come.
Key Valiant Stakes Trends
- Age: Six of the last 12 winners were aged three, while six were aged four or older.
- Recent Run: Ten of the last 12 winners had raced within the previous 37 days.
- Course Experience: Six of the last 12 winners had previously raced at Ascot.
- Distance Experience: Nine of the last 12 winners had made at least two previous appearances over one mile.
- Distance Success: Seven of the last 12 winners had already won over one mile.
- Flat Experience: Eleven of the last 12 winners had made at least four previous Flat starts.
- Winning Experience: All 12 previous winners had recorded at least two Flat victories.
- Official Rating: Ten of the last 12 winners were rated 95 or higher.
- Seasonal Activity: All 12 previous winners had raced at least twice during the current season.
The historical profile favours runners with established mile form, a rating of at least 95 and a relatively recent outing. Arisaig, Cheshire Dancer and Kon Tiki satisfy many of the traditional requirements, while Touleen compensates for a slightly less conventional profile with a clear advantage on raw ratings.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
| Horse | Trends | Rating | RPR / TS | Profile | Speed | Trainer/Jockey | Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touleen | 10/12 | 426 | 123 / 109 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | Clear best RPR and Topspeed figures, highest official rating, strong recent second and William Buick is operating at an exceptional strike rate. | Yet to win in two starts over a mile and was beaten on her previous Ascot appearance. | Main Selection |
| Skydance | 7/12 | 412 | 111 / 92 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | Progressive three-year-old, already successful over one mile and partnered by an in-form Oisin Murphy. Her profile suggests there could be considerably more to come. | Returns from a 104-day absence and has less experience than several of the older runners. | Main Danger |
| Kon Tiki | 9/12 | 401 | 115 / 92 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | Two wins from five starts over the distance, an official rating of 105 and Ryan Moore booked. Her overall profile is consistent and well balanced. | Finished outside the placings last time and is returning 38 days after her latest appearance, narrowly beyond the strongest recent-run trend. | Each-Way Chance |
| Arisaig | 10/12 | 392 | 117 / 89 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | Strong 117 RPR, recent run, proven distance winner and Jamie Spencer has an excellent recent return. | Only one win from 19 starts at the trip and has failed to win in six previous appearances at Ascot. | Ratings Threat |
| Pina Sonata | 8/12 | 384 | 114 / — | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Lightly raced, already successful over a mile and represents a James Fanshawe yard operating at a solid recent strike rate. | Returns after 49 days, Topspeed data is limited and Daniel Muscutt has only one recent winner. | Progressive Threat |
| Sukanya | 8/12 | 374 | 114 / 89 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Strong official rating, recent run and has previously achieved an RPR of 114. Tom Marquand is an experienced booking for a race of this nature. | Has yet to win over one mile, is zero from two at Ascot and needs to recover from a disappointing latest performance. | Bounce-Back Required |
| Esna | 7/12 | 365 | 115 / 85 | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | Capable of a 115 RPR, carries the lower three-year-old weight and Mickael Barzalona arrives in strong form. | Limited distance experience, no win at the trip and returns after 41 days. | Needs Improvement |
| Cheshire Dancer | 10/12 | 356 | 116 / 90 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Defending race winner, proven course-and-distance performer and satisfies many of the principal historical trends. | Recent form has deteriorated, her official rating has fallen to 95 and she was well beaten on her latest start. | Course Specialist |
Key: ★★★★★ excellent, ★★★★☆ strong, ★★★☆☆ fair, ★★☆☆☆ below ideal, ★☆☆☆☆ concern.
Final Turf Talk Filter
The Turf Talk filter gives the narrow advantage to Touleen. She is comfortably clear on the principal performance figures, recording an RPR of 123 and Topspeed figure of 109, while her official rating of 112 is also the highest in the field.
Skydance is the most interesting alternative. Her current ratings do not yet match Touleen’s, but she has already won over the distance, receives the three-year-old weight allowance and retains considerably more scope for progression than most of the field.
Kon Tiki has one of the most balanced profiles. She is a dual winner over one mile, is rated 105 and has Ryan Moore booked. Her latest run was slightly disappointing, but she remains capable of playing a major role.
Arisaig is a clear ratings threat with an RPR of 117, although a modest one-from-19 record over the distance and no wins from six visits to Ascot prevent her from ranking higher.
Valiant Stakes 2026 Tips
1. Touleen
Touleen is the Turf Talk selection.
She holds a clear advantage on the primary ratings, with an RPR of 123, Topspeed figure of 109 and official rating of 112.
William Buick is in outstanding form and she shaped well when finishing second on her latest appearance.
2. Skydance
Skydance is the main danger.
She is a progressive three-year-old who has already won over one mile and receives weight from the older fillies and mares.
Oisin Murphy is in excellent form and her lightly raced profile leaves considerable room for further improvement.
3. Kon Tiki
Kon Tiki completes the top three.
She is a dual winner over the distance, has a strong official rating of 105 and benefits from the booking of Ryan Moore.
Her latest run was below her best, but her overall mile profile makes her a serious contender.
Turf Talk Verdict
Touleen gets the vote on ratings in the Valiant Stakes. She is clearly the strongest runner on RPR, Topspeed and official ratings, and her latest second suggests she arrives in competitive form. Skydance is the most interesting danger because of her progressive profile and potential for further improvement and is my personal selection, while Kon Tiki is the strongest each-way option on proven mile form.
Final Selection
Touleen
1st: Touleen 6/5
2nd: Skydance 12/1
3rd: Kon Tiki 3/1
Outsider to watch: Arisaig
