Date: Saturday 1st June 2019
The Derby is never an easy race to solve, but the modern shape of it is becoming a little clearer. Strong trial form, a high level of natural class and the right trainer-jockey combination all count for plenty.
Ballydoyle is once again heavily represented and that in itself is a major trend. Add in horses coming here off solid prep runs and those drawn away from the very lowest stalls, and the shortlist starts to take shape.
Using the core Turf Talk approach, these are the runners that come out strongest for this year’s Derby.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Anthony Van Dyck | 221 |
| Sir Dragonet | 216 |
| Madhmoon | 207 |
| Japan | 198 |
| Broome | 192 |
| Telecaster | 184 |
| Bangkok | 176 |
The ratings lean heavily on prep-race form, official class, trainer strength in the race and draw. Since the middle part of the decade, Ballydoyle runners and horses arriving off strong trials have been particularly hard to ignore.
MAIN SELECTION
Anthony Van Dyck (13/2 available)
He comes out top on the Turf Talk Ratings and makes plenty of appeal at the prices.
He fits the strongest current Derby angle of all, namely coming from the Aidan O’Brien yard with a solid level of form already in the book. His draw looks a positive, he has the right rating profile and he looks the type who should be suited by Epsom.
In a deep year he looks the safest all-round option.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Sir Dragonet (5/4 available)
The obvious talking horse and one with huge potential after his trial win.
He has the right trainer, the right aura and the right level of raw ability, but he is shorter than ideal in a race that can still throw up surprises. Even so, his profile demands respect and he has to go on the shortlist.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Madhmoon (6/1 available)
A very solid alternative with strong Classic form already in the book.
He has the class angle, he comes here off a strong prep and he looks the type to handle a truly run Derby. If the Ballydoyle runners underperform, he looks one of the most likely to pick up the pieces.
SUMMARY
The ratings suggest this year’s Derby centres around the Ballydoyle challenge once again. Anthony Van Dyck gets the nod as the main selection, with Sir Dragonet and Madhmoon looking the strongest alternatives.
