Date: Saturday 14th April 2018
The Grand National takes place this Saturday at Aintree and, as always, I have gone back to my tried and tested trends and ratings approach to narrow down this year’s field.
Using the original Turf Talk methodology, based on the old Computerace principles, I have combined historical trends with race profiling to produce a set of ratings for this year’s leading contenders.
The aim, as always, is to reduce a very competitive field into a small group of realistic contenders and from there identify a main selection along with two back-up picks.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Tiger Roll | 216 |
| Blaklion | 208 |
| Total Recall | 194 |
| Pleasant Company | 188 |
| Cause Of Causes | 181 |
| Anibale Fly | 176 |
| Milansbar | 169 |
These ratings are derived from a blend of historical Grand National trends, chase experience, class, official mark, trainer and jockey profile, and general suitability for a race of this nature.
Historically, the winner usually comes from towards the top end of the ratings and that is the route taken again this year.
MAIN SELECTION
Tiger Roll (10/1)
This one comes out top on the Turf Talk Ratings and looks to have plenty in his favour for a race like this.
He is not the most obvious Grand National type at first glance, but his class is there for all to see and his profile suggests he could be very well suited by the demands of the modern race. He arrives in good form, has the right sort of experience and looks the type to travel strongly for a long way.
If he gets into a rhythm early and sees the trip out fully, he has the quality to play a major part.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Blaklion (12/1)
A very strong alternative and one that has been on the radar for this race for some time.
He has solid staying credentials, plenty of class and already has useful Aintree form to his name. His profile fits a lot of the key trends and he looks sure to give another bold sight if his jumping holds up under pressure.
He rates as one of the most likely dangers to the main selection.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Total Recall (16/1)
Another horse that makes plenty of appeal on the ratings and cannot be ignored.
He has the right blend of class and stamina, has already shown he can cope with competitive handicaps and looks one of the more interesting profiles in the race. If he takes to the fences, he looks capable of being very involved.
He is not quite as solid as the top two on the numbers, but he still makes the shortlist comfortably.
SUMMARY
This looks another fascinating renewal of the Grand National, but the ratings suggest that Tiger Roll, Blaklion and Total Recall are the three that stand out most strongly.
Tiger Roll gets the nod as the main selection, with Blaklion and Total Recall looking the best of the alternatives in a race where jumping, balance and stamina will once again be decisive.
