Falmouth Stakes 2026
The Falmouth Stakes is a prestigious Group 1 contest over one mile for fillies and mares, bringing together an intriguing mix of established older performers and high-class three-year-olds.
This year’s runners are Blue Bolt, Jancis, Balantina, Evolutionist, Precise, Venetian Lace and Venosa.
From a trends perspective, Precise is the standout after achieving a perfect 15/15 match. Balantina, Evolutionist and Blue Bolt all score an excellent 14/15, while Venetian Lace is next best on 12/15.
Key Falmouth Stakes Trends
- Debut Surface: 20/20 winners had not debuted on good to soft, firm, standard-slow, standard or fibresand.
- Age: 20/20 winners were no more than one year older than the youngest runner.
- Last-Win Weight: 20/20 winners carried between 120lb and 128lb for their latest victory.
- Recent RPR: 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of at least 107 in their previous three starts.
- Sex: 20/20 winners were fillies.
- Maximum Age: 20/20 winners were aged four or younger.
- Highest Placing: 20/20 winners’ highest placing was not in Group 3 or Class 2-5 company.
- Last-Time-Out Weight: 20/20 winners carried between 123lb and 133lb last time out.
- Debut Field Size: 20/20 winners debuted in a field of between six and 15 runners.
- Career RPR: 20/20 winners achieved a career RPR of at least 108.
- Recent Placings: 20/20 winners recorded between two and seven placings during the previous year.
- Official Rating: 19/20 winners held an official rating of at least 108.
- Market Position: 19/20 winners were within the first six in the betting.
- Starting Price: 19/20 winners were no bigger than 16/1.
- Career Price: 19/20 winners had never started bigger than 33/1.
The strongest trends horse is Precise on a perfect 15/15. Balantina, Evolutionist and Blue Bolt all score 14/15, with Venetian Lace next best on 12/15.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
| Horse | Trends | Rating | RPR/TS | Profile | Speed | Trainer/Jockey | Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precise | 15/15 | 417 | 124 / 104 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | Perfect trends profile, highest RPR in the race, proven Group 1 class and partnered by Ryan Moore for A P O’Brien. | Short price and must bounce back from a below-par latest run. | Main Selection |
| Blue Bolt | 14/15 | 406 | 122 / 99 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | Excellent trends score, unbeaten on the going, highly progressive and possesses a strong mile record. | Faces her toughest class test and her Topspeed figure is below the quickest pair. | Main Danger |
| Evolutionist | 14/15 | 399 | 118 / 111 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★☆ | Joint-top Topspeed figure, course-and-distance winner and an excellent 14/15 trends match. | Latest run was disappointing and her RPR is a little below the leading contenders. | Each-Way Chance |
| Balantina | 14/15 | 390 | 118 / 86 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | Very strong trends profile, proven over a mile and represents a yard with recent success in this race. | Topspeed figure is weaker than the main rivals and she needs to improve on her latest effort. | Place Claims |
| Jancis | 10/15 | 386 | 121 / 110 | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★★ | ★★★☆☆ | Second-best RPR, joint-second-best Topspeed figure and arrives in strong form. | Older than the ideal profile and winless in seven attempts over the distance. | Ratings Threat |
| Venetian Lace | 12/15 | 377 | 117 / 110 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | Strong speed figure, solid trends match and the Buick booking is a major positive. | Winless over both the going and distance and was well beaten last time. | Possible Rebound |
| Venosa | 6/15 | 319 | 92 / 77 | ★☆☆☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Represents powerful connections and receives the three-year-old weight allowance. | Lowest RPR, lowest Topspeed figure and comfortably the weakest trends profile. | Oppose |
Key: ★★★★★ excellent, ★★★★☆ strong, ★★★☆☆ fair, ★★☆☆☆ below ideal, ★☆☆☆☆ concern.
Final Turf Talk Filter
The Falmouth Stakes filter points towards Precise. She is the only runner to achieve a perfect 15/15 trends score and also owns the highest Racing Post Rating in the field at 124.
She brings proven Group 1 form, an excellent mile record and the strongest trainer-jockey combination in the race. Her latest run was below her best, but the overall body of evidence remains stronger than that of her rivals.
Blue Bolt is the most compelling alternative. She scores 14/15 on the trends, is unbeaten on the going and has won five of her seven starts over a mile. She remains progressive and could be the one to punish any underperformance from the favourite.
Evolutionist has the strongest each-way profile. She is a course-and-distance winner, matches 14/15 trends and owns the joint-best Topspeed figure in the race at 111.
Jancis is respected on raw figures, with an RPR of 121 and a Topspeed figure of 110, but her age profile and lack of a win from seven attempts at the distance weaken her overall case.
Falmouth Stakes 2026 Tips
1. Precise 5/6
Precise is the Turf Talk selection after achieving a perfect 15/15 trends score.
She owns the highest RPR in the field, has already demonstrated top-level ability and represents the formidable A P O’Brien and Ryan Moore combination.
2. Blue Bolt 11/4
Blue Bolt is the main danger.
She is unbeaten on the going, highly effective over a mile and scores an excellent 14/15 on the trends. She continues to progress and looks capable of taking another step forward.
3. Evolutionist 16/1
Evolutionist completes the top three.
She is a course-and-distance winner, scores 14/15 on the trends and owns the joint-highest Topspeed figure in the race. Her latest effort was disappointing, but her overall profile remains strong.
Turf Talk Verdict
Precise gets the vote in the Falmouth Stakes. She combines the only perfect trends profile with the highest RPR and proven Group 1 quality. Blue Bolt is the clear danger as the progressive older filly, while Evolutionist is the strongest each-way option.
Final Selection
Precise
1st: Precise 5/6
2nd: Blue Bolt 11/4
3rd: Evolutionist 16/1
