Epsom Oaks 2026 Preview
The Betfred Oaks at Epsom is one of the most demanding races of the season for three-year-old fillies. Run over 1m4f on good to soft ground, it tests class, stamina, balance, tactical speed and the ability to handle Epsom’s unique camber.
At Turf Talk, every runner has been assessed using our full trends and ratings model, combining historical Oaks trends, official ratings, RPR figures, Topspeed, trainer form, jockey bookings, going suitability, stamina potential and Epsom profile.
Key Epsom Oaks Trends
- RPR: 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 97+ last time out.
- Debut Field Size: 20/20 winners debuted in a field of 7-17 runners.
- Last Win: 19/20 winners won by at least half a length on their most recent win.
- Class Profile: 19/20 winners had not made their last win in a Group 2 or Class 5 race.
- Weight Profile: 19/20 winners carried 124-129lbs on their last win.
- Ground: 19/20 winners had not made their last win on heavy, firm, standard-slow or standard.
- Recent Form: 18/20 winners had placed within their last start.
- Market: 17/20 winners were within the first 7 of the market.
- Winning Profile: 17/20 winners had won within their last 2 starts.
The pure trends shortlist strongly highlights Thundering On, who achieved a perfect 15/15 trends match. Amelia Earhart, Cameo and Legacy Link all achieved 14/15, while A La Prochaine also has an interesting profile despite being lighter on experience.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
| Horse | Trends % | Rating | OR/RPR | Class | Stamina Profile | Recent | Trainer | Going/Course | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amelia Earhart | 93% | 238 | 105 / 113 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore combination, very strong profile, excellent trends fit and proven ability to progress. | Needs to prove she has the same raw ceiling as a couple of rivals on RPR. | Main selection |
| Legacy Link | 93% | 235 | 105 / 123 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Highest RPR in the field, strong Gosden profile, Colin Keane booked and very solid Classic credentials. | Has to confirm stamina at the full Oaks trip. | Main danger |
| Thundering On | 100% | 232 | 107 / 118 | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | Perfect 15/15 trends match, progressive profile, Joseph O’Brien runner and strong recent setup. | Raw RPR is slightly below the very best in the race. | Shortlist |
| Cameo | 93% | 229 | 104 / 117 | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Strong trends match, proven at the distance, Aidan O’Brien profile and solid RPR/TS support. | Wayne Lordan booking is respected, but Ryan Moore rides Amelia Earhart. | Major player |
| Venetian Lace | 72% | 226 | 110 / 122 | ✓✓✓ | △ | ✓ | △ | △ | Highest official rating, strong RPR and excellent Topspeed figure with William Buick booked. | Weaker trends profile and stamina evidence is less convincing. | Ratings danger |
| A La Prochaine | 83% | 222 | 98 / 107 | ✓ | △ | ✓✓ | ✓ | ? | Expensive profile, open to major improvement and represents a trainer who knows how to prepare an Oaks filly. | Needs a sizeable ratings jump and lacks the proven figures of the top group. | Interesting improver |
| K Sarra | 65% | 218 | 100 / 118 | ✓✓ | △ | △ | ✓ | ? | RPR puts her in the wider mix and Ralph Beckett is respected in staying filly races. | Trend score is weaker and she needs to prove more under Oaks conditions. | Needs more |
| On Message | 77% | 216 | 99 / 108 | ✓ | △ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | Course winner and represents a yard that can produce Oaks types. | Ratings leave her short of the main contenders. | Place outsider |
| Sugar Island | 65% | 212 | 104 / 115 | ✓✓ | △ | △ | ✓✓✓ | △ | Aidan O’Brien runner with enough back ability to be respected. | Trend profile, recent run and stamina questions make others stronger. | Others preferred |
Key: ✓✓✓ strong positive, ✓✓ positive, ✓ acceptable, △ slight concern, ✗ negative, ? unknown or limited data.
Final Turf Talk Filter
The final filter brings this down to Amelia Earhart, Legacy Link, Thundering On, Cameo and Venetian Lace. These are the fillies who combine the strongest overall mix of trends, ratings, trainer profile, stamina potential and Oaks suitability.
Amelia Earhart comes out on top because she brings the powerful Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore combination, a strong trends profile and the right progressive shape for the Oaks. She may not have the single highest RPR in the field, but the overall Classic profile is very hard to ignore.
Legacy Link is the main danger. She has the highest RPR in the race, the Gosden stable has an excellent Oaks record, and Colin Keane is a positive booking. If she stays the trip strongly, she has a major chance.
Thundering On is the pure trends horse. She is the only runner to achieve a perfect 15/15 match and has the right progressive shape for this type of race. The only reason she sits third is that her raw rating is just below the top pair.
Epsom Oaks 2026 Tips
1. Amelia Earhart
Amelia Earhart is the Turf Talk selection for the 2026 Epsom Oaks. She brings the Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore angle, a strong trends profile and the kind of progressive Classic shape that can improve again over this trip.
She still has to confirm she can match the very best raw figures in the race, but the overall profile makes her a very strong selection.
2. Legacy Link
Legacy Link is the obvious danger on figures. Her RPR of 123 is the strongest in the field and the Gosden stable has a superb record with Oaks fillies.
The question is whether she will fully see out the mile and a half at Epsom, but if she does, she could easily prove the best horse in the race.
3. Thundering On
Thundering On is the pure trends standout after achieving a perfect 15/15 match. That makes her impossible to ignore in a race where the historical profile often matters.
She may need a little more on raw ratings, but the shape of her profile is exactly what the trends want.
Turf Talk Verdict
Amelia Earhart is the selection, with Legacy Link the strongest ratings danger and Thundering On the pure trends standout. Cameo and Venetian Lace complete the main shortlist.
Final Selection
Amelia Earhart
The trends, ratings and final filter point towards Amelia Earhart as the strongest Turf Talk play in the 2026 Epsom Oaks.
1st: Amelia Earhart
2nd: Legacy Link
3rd: Thundering On
Final note: draw, ground, market strength and late paddock signals can still affect the final race shape.
