Irish 2000 Guineas 2026 Preview
The Irish 2000 Guineas is one of the defining mile races for three-year-old colts and this year’s renewal brings together a strong blend of Ballydoyle power, Godolphin strength, progressive British raiders and several proven Curragh performers.
At Turf Talk, every runner has been assessed using our trends and ratings model, combining historical Irish 2000 Guineas trends, Racing Post ratings, Topspeed figures, trainer and jockey form, course suitability, mile profile and current progression.
The trends point strongly towards Distant Storm and Thesecretadversary, who both achieved perfect 15/15 matches, while Alparslan also comes out strongly on 14/15. However, the raw ratings also make Gstaad a major danger.
Key Irish 2000 Guineas Trends
• 20/20 winners had run in 4-7 career races
• 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 105+ during their career
• 20/20 winners were within the first 7 of the market
• 20/20 winners were not coming from a Class 2 or Class 4 race last time out
• 20/20 winners debuted over 6f-7f
• 20/20 winners carried 124-131lbs on their last win
• 20/20 winners were not making their last win on firm, standard or fast going
• 20/20 winners achieved a TS of 36+ on their last win
• 20/20 winners carried 124-131lbs last time out
• 20/20 winners had fewer than 3 runs in the previous 180 days
The strongest historical profiles are Distant Storm and Thesecretadversary, both matching all 15 supplied trends. Alparslan is next best on 14/15, while Gstaad scores lower on trends but has the strongest raw ratings profile in the field.
Turf Talk Ratings
| Horse | Rating | Trainer | Jockey | Trends | Key Positives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distant Storm | 239 | Charlie Appleby | Billy Loughnane | 15/15 | Perfect trends match, very strong TS/RPR figures, Appleby yard back in form and first-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up | TOP RATED |
| Gstaad | 237 | A P O’Brien | Ryan Moore | 12/15 | Clear standout on raw RPR and TS, proven at the mile, Ballydoyle/Ryan Moore factor and strongest ability profile | MAIN DANGER |
| Alparslan | 232 | K R Burke | Sam James | 14/15 | Strong trends score, Curragh winner, high RPR, solid TS profile and progressive shape | BIG PLAYER |
| Thesecretadversary | 228 | J A Stack | Seamie Heffernan | 15/15 | Perfect trends match, proven on the going, strong RPR profile and solid overall setup | SHORTLIST |
| Power Blue | 224 | Robson De Aguiar | David Egan | 11/15 | Strong course record, high RPR, genuine Curragh experience and solid mile potential | RESPECTED |
| Pacific Avenue | 220 | Charlie Appleby | Jamie Spencer | 6/15 | Strong TS profile, Appleby angle, proven over a mile, but trend score is a clear concern | DANGEROUS |
| Neolithic | 218 | A P O’Brien | Wayne Lordan | 9/15 | Ballydoyle second string with enough raw ability to outrun his trend score | PLACE CHANCE |
| Go Just Do It | 211 | Joseph O’Brien | Dylan Browne McMonagle | 8/15 | Trainer and jockey respected, but needs a sharp ratings jump to trouble the principals | NEEDS MORE |
| Take Charge Star | 207 | J P Murtagh | Ben Coen | 10/15 | Going positive, but overall ratings profile leaves him with something to find | OUTSIDER |
| Bamako Beach | 198 | M D O’Callaghan | Colin Keane | 6/15 | Colin Keane booking catches the eye but ratings and trends both leave him short | OUTSIDER |
The Turf Talk ratings combine historical trends, speed figures, ratings, trainer form, jockey form, course profile, mile suitability and current progression.
Pure Trends Rankings
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Trend Positives | Trend Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distant Storm | 15/15 | Perfect trends match, ideal career profile, strong recent figures and excellent Appleby stable form | OUTSTANDING MATCH |
| Thesecretadversary | 15/15 | Perfect match to the historical profile, strong going evidence and progressive overall setup | OUTSTANDING MATCH |
| Alparslan | 14/15 | Strong Curragh angle, high RPR profile and close fit to the typical Irish Guineas winner | ELITE PROFILE |
| Gstaad | 12/15 | Lower trends score than the very top but outstanding raw figures and Ballydoyle strength | STRONG RATINGS HORSE |
| Power Blue | 11/15 | Course experience is a plus and ratings are solid enough to be respected | SOLID MATCH |
| Take Charge Star | 10/15 | Meets some of the profile markers but has ground to make up on ratings | FAIR MATCH |
| Neolithic | 9/15 | Ballydoyle profile respected but misses several key historical markers | MIXED PROFILE |
| Go Just Do It | 8/15 | Needs improvement and lacks the stronger trend profile of the principals | QUESTION MARKS |
| Pacific Avenue | 6/15 | Useful ability but poor historical trend fit for this race | WEAK TRENDS MATCH |
| Bamako Beach | 6/15 | Lightly raced but lacks the depth of trend and ratings support | WEAK TRENDS MATCH |
Race Analysis
This is a fascinating Irish 2000 Guineas because the trends and the raw ratings do not point to exactly the same horse. Distant Storm and Thesecretadversary both achieve a perfect 15/15 trends match, while Gstaad brings the strongest raw ratings profile in the field.
Distant Storm now edges top spot on the Turf Talk model. He combines a perfect trends match with strong RPR and Topspeed figures, and Charlie Appleby’s yard has returned to form at exactly the right time. The first-time cheekpieces are another interesting angle and could help him sharpen up again for this Group 1 test.
Gstaad is the obvious danger. His RPR and Topspeed figures are the strongest in the field and he has already shown high-class mile form. Ryan Moore takes the ride and Ballydoyle have an outstanding record in this type of race, so he remains a major threat despite a slightly weaker trends score than the top selection.
Alparslan is very interesting. He already has winning Curragh form, scores 14/15 on the trends and represents a K R Burke yard that continues to do well with high-class three-year-olds. He is not far behind the top two and looks a very solid third contender.
Thesecretadversary is the other perfect trends horse and deserves plenty of respect. His RPR profile is strong enough to put him in the race, and the ground evidence is a positive. The slight concern is whether he has the same ceiling as the top three, but historically he fits the race beautifully.
Power Blue brings useful Curragh experience and enough class to be respected, while Pacific Avenue has a stronger raw speed profile than his trends score suggests, making him dangerous if the race sets up favourably.
Turf Talk Shortlist
A-Rated: Distant Storm, Gstaad, Alparslan
B-Rated: Thesecretadversary, Power Blue, Pacific Avenue
Value Profile: Thesecretadversary
Verdict
Distant Storm (11/2) gets the nod on the Turf Talk model after combining a perfect trends profile, strong RPR and Topspeed figures and an Appleby yard returning to form. Gstaad is the obvious danger on raw ability, while Alparslan is a strong third contender with proven Curragh form. I do like the look of Thesecretadversary (9/1) who meets lots of the criteria to win this race at a nice price.
