Epsom Derby 2026 Preview
The Betfred Derby at Epsom is the ultimate test for three-year-old colts, combining class, stamina, balance, tactical speed and the ability to handle one of the most unique tracks in world racing.
Run over 1m4f on good to soft ground, this year’s Derby brings together several powerful profiles, including strong Ballydoyle contenders, improving middle-distance types and a few horses with clear ratings upside.
Key Epsom Derby Trends
- Class Profile: 20/20 winners had not recorded their highest placed effort in Listed, Class 2 or lower company.
- Debut Price: 20/20 winners were no bigger than 11/1 on debut.
- Speed Figure: 20/20 winners achieved a TS of 52+ on their last win.
- Last Time Out: 20/20 winners were no bigger than 123/10 last time out.
- Winning Margin: 20/20 winners won by at least a neck on their last win.
- RPR: 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 87+ on their last win and 100+ during their career.
- Ground: 20/20 winners had not made their last win on firm, standard-slow or standard.
- Weight Profile: 20/20 winners carried 124-133lbs on their last win.
- Break: 20/20 winners came here off a suitable break after their last placed effort.
The pure trends shortlist strongly highlights Benvenuto Cellini, who achieved a perfect 15/15 trends match. Action, Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard all scored 14/15, while Item and James J Braddock also fit the historical profile well.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
| Horse | Trends % | Rating | OR/RPR | Class | Stamina Profile | Recent | Trainer | Going/Course | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benvenuto Cellini | 100% | 242 | 112 / 127 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | Perfect 15/15 trends match, proven at the trip, Ryan Moore booked, powerful Ballydoyle Derby profile. | Short price and still needs to handle Epsom, but there are very few holes. | Main selection |
| Item | 87% | 238 | 117 / 130 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | Highest OR and RPR in the field, strong raw ability, progressive profile and Colin Keane booked. | Trend score is not as strong as the Ballydoyle principals and stamina still has to be fully proven. | Main danger |
| Action | 94% | 236 | 113 / 127 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Strong trends score, joint-high RPR behind Item, excellent TS and Ballydoyle Derby strength. | Wayne Lordan rides while Ryan Moore is on Benvenuto Cellini. | Shortlist |
| Pierre Bonnard | 94% | 231 | 109 / 122 | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Strong 14/15 trends match, Ballydoyle runner, Christophe Soumillon booked and solid overall profile. | Raw ratings are slightly below the top three. | Major player |
| Maltese Cross | 80% | 229 | 108 / 122 | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | William Haggas in strong form, proven at the trip and a solid RPR/TS profile. | Lower trend score than the main Ballydoyle contenders. | Strong place chance |
| Christmas Day | 94% | 228 | 109 / 121 | ✓✓ | △ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Excellent 14/15 trends score, Ballydoyle profile and enough ability to be involved. | Needs to prove he is as strong over the trip as the leading contenders. | Respected |
| Bay Of Brilliance | 74% | 224 | 107 / 121 | ✓✓ | △ | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | Ralph Beckett runner with solid figures and good-ground evidence. | Trainer form is quieter and trend score is below the main group. | Place outsider |
| James J Braddock | 87% | 222 | 108 / 121 | ✓✓ | △ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | Good trends score, Joseph O’Brien profile and Dylan Browne McMonagle riding well. | Needs a further ratings jump to trouble the strongest profiles. | Interesting outsider |
| Ancient Egypt | 80% | 216 | 100 / 118 | ✓ | △ | ✓✓ | △ | ✓ | Recent winner and enough raw ability to be considered in the wider picture. | Trainer course record and ratings leave him short of the principals. | Needs more |
| Rebel Rocker | 58% | 210 | 99 / 111 | △ | △ | ✓ | ✗ | △ | Lightly raced and open to some improvement. | Trend score, ratings and trainer profile are all below the required Derby standard. | Up against it |
| Balzac | 55% | 208 | 97 / 110 | △ | ✓ | △ | △ | △ | Some stamina evidence and workable profile. | Trend score and raw figures leave him with plenty to find. | Others stronger |
| A Taste Of Glory | 62% | 205 | 84 / 104 | ✗ | △ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | Good-ground winner and Jamie Spencer booked. | Ratings are well below the Derby-winning standard. | Opposed |
| Alderman | 50% | 202 | 83 / 98 | ✗ | ? | △ | ✓ | ? | Richard Hannon yard is in good form and Pat Dobbs is riding well. | Ratings and trends are both well short. | Opposed |
| Poker | 50% | 199 | 80 / 92 | ✗ | ✓ | △ | ✓ | ✓ | K R Burke runner and some positives in the wider profile. | Raw ratings are far below what is normally required. | Opposed |
Key: ✓✓✓ strong positive, ✓✓ positive, ✓ acceptable, △ slight concern, ✗ negative, ? unknown or limited data.
Final Turf Talk Filter
The final filter brings this down to Benvenuto Cellini, Item, Action, Pierre Bonnard, Maltese Cross and Christmas Day. These are the runners who combine the strongest overall mix of trends, ratings, trainer profile, stamina potential and Derby suitability.
Benvenuto Cellini comes out on top because he is the only perfect 15/15 trends match, is already proven at the trip, brings the Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien Derby combination and has a profile that closely resembles several recent Derby winners.
Item is the strongest raw ratings danger. He has the highest official rating and RPR in the field, which makes him impossible to ignore. The only reason he sits behind Benvenuto Cellini is that his trend profile is not quite as strong.
Action is the other major Ballydoyle contender. He has strong RPR and Topspeed figures, scores well on the trends and has the class to run a huge race if seeing out the trip fully.
Epsom Derby 2026 Tips
1. Benvenuto Cellini
Benvenuto Cellini is the Turf Talk selection for the 2026 Epsom Derby. He is the only runner to achieve a perfect 15/15 trends match, has already proven himself over the Derby trip and brings the powerful Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore combination.
His profile has the right blend of class, stamina, progression and historical fit. In a race where several have questions to answer at the trip, he looks the most complete Derby candidate.
2. Item
Item is the obvious danger on raw ability. His official rating of 117 and RPR of 130 are the strongest figures in the field, and he has the talent to win this if staying the trip and handling Epsom.
He does not match the trends quite as strongly as Benvenuto Cellini, but his ratings profile makes him a major player.
3. Action
Action is a very strong third choice. He scores 14/15 on the trends, has an RPR of 127 and a huge Topspeed figure of 123, so his raw profile is very powerful.
Ryan Moore choosing Benvenuto Cellini is a slight negative, but Action still has the class to be heavily involved.
Turf Talk Verdict
Benvenuto Cellini is the selection, with Item the strongest raw-ratings danger and Action another serious Ballydoyle contender. Pierre Bonnard, Maltese Cross and Christmas Day complete the main shortlist.
Final Selection
Benvenuto Cellini
The trends, ratings and final filter point towards Benvenuto Cellini as the strongest Turf Talk play in the 2026 Epsom Derby.
1st: Benvenuto Cellini
2nd: Item
3rd: Action
Final note: draw, ground, market strength and late paddock signals can still affect the final race shape.
