Date: Saturday 4th July 2020
This is a very different looking Derby with the season turned on its head, but even in unusual circumstances the key ingredients still tend to hold up.
Class, a strong prep and a powerful stable remain the biggest indicators. With the trial structure disrupted slightly, there is perhaps a little more guesswork than usual, but the ratings still point us towards a fairly tight group at the top.
Using the Turf Talk approach, these are the three that come out best.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Kameko | 219 |
| English King | 213 |
| Serpentine | 196 |
| Mogul | 189 |
| Russian Emperor | 182 |
| Amhran Na Bhfiann | 174 |
| Vatican City | 168 |
With the season disrupted, a little more emphasis has been placed on raw class and stable strength rather than just traditional prep races.
MAIN SELECTION
Kameko (7/2 available)
He comes out top on the ratings and brings the strongest piece of form into the race.
The Guineas is always a powerful pointer when the horse shapes like he will stay, and he has the class edge on most of these. In a year lacking a standout Derby profile, he looks the most solid option.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
English King (11/4 available)
The standout trial winner and one with a very strong profile for this race.
He ticks the prep box perfectly and looks sure to stay. If that Lingfield form holds up, he is a major player and arguably the biggest threat to the selection.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Serpentine (40/1 available)
The more interesting one at a price and impossible to ignore given the stable.
The O’Brien factor is huge in this race and he looks the type who could improve significantly for the step up in trip. Not the most obvious on paper, but definitely the one at a bigger price to include.
SUMMARY
Kameko comes out top on class, with English King the obvious danger and Serpentine the value alternative in what looks a tricky but fascinating Derby.
