Date: Sunday 5th May 2024
The 1000 Guineas looks a deep and slightly awkward renewal, with enough quality at the head of the market but also enough unknowns to make it dangerous to rely too heavily on reputation alone.
Newmarket form, mile form and a solid Group-race background remain the obvious building blocks. The stronger trends still point towards fillies with at least four previous runs, a rating in excess of 106 and some previous experience on the Rowley Mile.
With favourites not dominating in recent renewals, this again looks a race where value away from the very top of the market could prove important.
These are the three that come out strongest on the Turf Talk figures.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Cinderella’s Dream | 223 |
| Ramatuelle | 217 |
| Porta Fortuna | 211 |
| Dance Sequence | 206 |
| Pretty Crystal | 198 |
The ratings favour the fillies with the strongest juvenile Group form and proven mile ability, although this still looks a race where improvement from two to three could play a major role.
MAIN SELECTION
Cinderella’s Dream (4/1 available)
She comes out top on the figures and looks to have the strongest overall blend of class and profile in the race.
Her juvenile form was of the right standard for a Guineas and she looks the type to progress into a very smart three-year-old. With the right balance of experience, rating and class, she makes the most appeal.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Ramatuelle (9/2 available)
A high-class filly with the ability to be a major player if she sees the mile out fully.
She has the rating and Group form to fit the key trends and brings plenty of raw ability. The slight question remains the trip, but if she settles she is a serious contender.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Porta Fortuna (11/1 available)
Not as fashionable in the market as some of the others, but she makes definite appeal on the broader profile.
She has the right level of Group form and enough experience to fit the stronger historical patterns. In a race where Newmarket can catch some out, her toughness and consistency make her very interesting at the prices.
SUMMARY
Cinderella’s Dream heads the ratings and looks the strongest on raw ability and profile, with Ramatuelle the main danger on class and Porta Fortuna the one at a bigger price who fits more of the solid historical trends than the market suggests.
