Big Price Play: Karnaval Point at Worcester

There are a few runners in here with bits and pieces of form that give them some sort of chance, but the one that really stands out from a price angle is Karnaval Point.

He has only just joined David Pipe from France, and that immediately makes him interesting. This is a yard that has done very well over the years with French recruits, especially when they arrive with proper jumping form already in the book.

On what he has achieved in France, the current odds look far too big.

Karnaval Point has already won over fences at both staying trips and shorter trips, including a recent success at Auteuil before changing hands. That is strong form in the context of this race, and he arrives here looking potentially very well treated from a mark of 108.

His Racing Post Rating of 124 also suggests there is more than enough ability there to be very competitive in this grade, and if he runs anywhere near the level of his French form, he should not be anything like a double-figure price.

The only slight unknown is the ground, as his French wins came on testing ground and this surface could be different. However, that has already been more than factored into the price, and it is exactly the sort of uncertainty that can sometimes create a very generous each-way opportunity.

The booking of Rian Corcoran, claiming 5lb, also helps from a handicapping point of view. With that claim taken into account, he looks very nicely weighted if he adapts quickly to British racing.

At around 10/1 available, the price looks absolutely wrong to me. He has solid French form, arrives with a very shrewd trainer, has a workable mark, and could easily be a good bit better than these if he takes to his new surroundings.

This looks a race where the market may be underestimating him simply because he is making his British debut, but that could be exactly where the value lies.