Date: Saturday 4th May 2024
The 2000 Guineas often looks like a race for the obvious colt, but recent renewals have shown that short-priced reputation alone is not enough. Only two of the last twelve winners went off favourite, even though the market has still done a fair job overall with seven of the last twelve winners coming from the first three in the betting.
The stronger patterns point towards colts with a rating of 109 or higher, at least two previous wins, and ideally proper Group form already in the book. There is also a strong case for those arriving off a winter break, with several recent winners coming here first time out after their juvenile campaign.
These are the three that come out strongest on the Turf Talk figures.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| City Of Troy | 229 |
| Rosallion | 218 |
| Notable Speech | 206 |
| Haatem | 197 |
| Ghostwriter | 191 |
The ratings lean heavily towards the proven top-class juvenile colts, with strong emphasis on Group 1 form and a proper mile pedigree.
MAIN SELECTION
City Of Troy (6/4 available)
He comes out comfortably top on the figures and has the strongest juvenile profile in the field.
His rating, Group 1 form and overall level of two-year-old ability make him the obvious starting point. He looks exactly the type this race is often built around and on pure class he sets the standard.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Rosallion (5/1 available)
A very solid alternative with plenty of substance to his profile.
He had the right level of juvenile form and looked the sort guaranteed to run his race. If the favourite failed to reproduce his best, Rosallion looked one of the most likely to capitalise.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Notable Speech (16/1 available)
Not the obvious one on public form, but one who made definite appeal once the race was broken down properly.
He lacked the same established profile as the leading pair, but had enough raw ability and scope to improve sharply. In a race where an unexposed colt can take a big step forward, he looked worth keeping on side at the prices.
SUMMARY
City Of Troy heads the ratings and looks the strongest on raw juvenile form, with Rosallion the obvious danger and Notable Speech the one at a bigger price who could improve enough to make the market look a little too confident about the obvious one.
