Date: Saturday 13th April 2024
The Grand National once again looks one of the most competitive races of the season, but the modern profile of the winner is becoming clearer all the time.
Recent renewals have shown that while some of the old trends still matter, class, current form and strong Irish staying handicap form are now just as important as weight and old-fashioned statistics.
With that in mind, I have again used the core Turf Talk trends alongside ratings, recent profile and race suitability to narrow this year’s field down to a shortlist of leading contenders.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| I Am Maximus | 224 |
| Corach Rambler | 219 |
| Vanillier | 207 |
| Meetingofthewaters | 198 |
| Panda Boy | 191 |
| Mr Incredible | 183 |
| Delta Work | 176 |
The ratings are built around a mix of traditional factors such as recent run, chase experience and big-field form, but now place a stronger emphasis on class, Irish staying handicap form and overall race profile.
As the race has evolved, it has become increasingly difficult to ignore those runners arriving near the top of the market with the right blend of class and stamina.
MAIN SELECTION
I Am Maximus (10/1 available)
He comes out top on the Turf Talk Ratings and looks to have an ideal profile for the modern Grand National.
He has had a recent run, arrives from a top Irish yard and already has the right sort of staying handicap form in the book. While some of the old-school trends would once have put more emphasis on lower weights, recent renewals suggest class and current form now count for more than ever.
Everything about his profile suggests he is one of the most likely winners in the field.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Corach Rambler (8/1 available)
Last year’s winner has to be respected and once again makes a very strong case on the ratings.
He has proven course form, has the right sort of recent preparation and remains the type who is well suited by a strongly run National. Carrying more weight is never ideal, but this is no longer the negative it used to be if the horse has enough class.
He looks the most obvious danger to the main selection.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Vanillier (14/1 available)
Another runner who fits the evolving profile of the race and makes plenty of appeal on the ratings.
He has the right sort of staying form, comes from a yard that knows what is required in these major handicaps and still looks attractively weighted compared to some of the better-known names. He also has the right blend of class and stamina for a race of this nature.
He may not be quite as solid as the top two, but he still makes the shortlist comfortably.
SUMMARY
This year’s race looks another strong renewal and the modern shape of the Grand National is now difficult to ignore.
I Am Maximus tops the ratings and is taken as the main selection, with Corach Rambler and Vanillier looking the strongest alternatives in a race that increasingly favours class, preparation and strong Irish staying handicap form.
