Date: Saturday 10th April 2021
The Grand National returns after a year’s absence and it is great to see the race back on the calendar. As always, it looks a typically competitive renewal with a strong mix of established staying chasers and progressive types.
In recent years there has been a clear shift towards slightly classier horses coming to the fore, particularly those arriving in form from major races earlier in the season. With that in mind, I have again applied the core Turf Talk trends alongside ratings and profiling to narrow the field down.
The aim remains the same, to reduce the field to a shortlist of realistic contenders and then identify a main selection and two strong alternatives.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Cloth Cap | 219 |
| Minella Times | 206 |
| Burrows Saint | 198 |
| Any Second Now | 191 |
| Delta Work | 184 |
| Bristol De Mai | 178 |
| Kimberlite Candy | 172 |
The ratings are built around a combination of traditional factors such as recent run, number of chase starts and big field experience, along with more modern influences such as class, current form and overall profile.
Recent renewals suggest that those towards the top end of the ratings are increasingly difficult to ignore.
MAIN SELECTION
Cloth Cap (6/1 available)
This year’s race revolves around the favourite and he comes out clear on top of the Turf Talk Ratings.
He ticks a number of the key trends including having had a recent run, being relatively lightly raced this season and having the right level of chase experience. His profile suggests he is improving and his latest performance was particularly impressive.
If handling the unique test of the National, he looks the most likely winner on paper.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Minella Times (16/1 available)
A very interesting runner who fits a number of the key trends and has the profile of a horse suited to this race.
He has had a recent run, has the right level of experience without being overexposed and looks the type to improve over this trip. His jumping and travelling style suggest he could be well suited to Aintree.
He looks one of the more interesting alternatives at a decent price.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Burrows Saint (20/1 available)
Another horse that rates highly and fits many of the traditional and modern trends.
He has the right sort of profile with a recent run, solid chase experience and a staying pedigree. He looks capable of improving again and could be well handicapped for a race of this nature.
He may not have the same level of class as the very top of the ratings, but still makes plenty of appeal.
SUMMARY
This looks another fascinating renewal and the return of the race only adds to the excitement.
Cloth Cap tops the ratings and is taken as the main selection, altough is a bit short to be getting too excited about. Minella Times and Burrows Saint look the strongest alternatives in a race that continues to favour improving and well-prepared horses.
