Date: Saturday 9th April 2016
The Grand National takes place this Saturday at Aintree and, as always, I have gone back to my tried and tested trends and ratings approach to narrow down this year’s field.
Using the original Turf Talk methodology, based on the old Computerace principles, I have combined historical trends with race profiling to produce a set of ratings for this year’s leading contenders.
The aim, as always, is to reduce a very competitive field into a small group of realistic contenders and from there identify a main selection along with two back-up picks.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Many Clouds | 218 |
| The Last Samuri | 205 |
| Shutthefrontdoor | 182 |
| Holywell | 178 |
| Morning Assembly | 174 |
| Ballycasey | 168 |
| Goonyella | 162 |
These ratings are derived from a blend of historical Grand National trends, chase experience, class, official mark, trainer and jockey profile, and general suitability for a race of this nature.
Historically, the winner usually comes from towards the top end of the ratings and that is the route taken again this year.
MAIN SELECTION
Many Clouds
The defending champion comes out top on the Turf Talk Ratings and it is easy to see why.
He has already proven he handles the unique demands of this race, which is a major positive in itself. His experience over fences, stamina and overall class all stand out and he ticks the majority of the key trends that I look for.
The obvious concern is the weight, which is never easy to overcome in this race, but if any horse in the field is capable of doing so it is one with his profile.
With conditions likely to suit and a proven record in the race, he sets the standard.
BACKUP SELECTION
The Last Samuri
A very solid option and one that sits just behind the top rating.
He looks well treated from a handicap perspective and has the profile of a horse that has been aimed at this race. His recent form is strong, he stays well and he has enough experience without being overexposed.
He fits the trends very well and looks sure to run his race.
BACKUP SELECTION
Shutthefrontdoor
Another runner that has been towards the head of the market and also features prominently in the ratings.
He has the right connections for a race like this and has been kept relatively fresh, which often suits in the National. He brings strong form into the race and has the right mix of class and stamina.
While not quite as strong a fit as the top two on the ratings, he is difficult to leave out of the shortlist.
SUMMARY
This looks as competitive a renewal as ever, but using the trends and Turf Talk Ratings, these three stand out as the strongest contenders.
Many Clouds tops the ratings and is taken as the main selection, with The Last Samuri and Shutthefrontdoor providing solid alternatives in what should be a fascinating race.
