Date: Saturday 1st June 2024
This year’s Derby revolves around one horse, but there are still a few interesting angles underneath the obvious headline. Aidan O’Brien’s grip on the race remains a major trend, and official class is again near the top of the list when building a shortlist.
Draw would once have put me off certain runners, but recent results suggest that a truly top-class colt can overcome a poor stall if he has enough in hand. These are the three that come out best on the Turf Talk ratings.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| City Of Troy | 226 |
| Los Angeles | 211 |
| Ambiente Friendly | 204 |
| Ancient Wisdom | 196 |
| Macduff | 187 |
| Dancing Gemini | 179 |
| Bellum Justum | 172 |
The ratings this year are led by class, stable power and whether the final prep still leaves the horse looking like a genuine Derby colt. The draw remains a consideration, but not the absolute barrier it once appeared to be.
MAIN SELECTION
City Of Troy (9/2 available)
He heads the ratings and, despite the draw, still looks the one they all have to beat.
The class angle is enormous, the stable knows exactly what is required and he comes here with the profile of a colt who can simply be too good. Stall 1 is not ideal, but recent winners have shown that the right horse can overcome it.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Los Angeles (13/2 available)
The second Ballydoyle string on paper, but one who still rates very highly.
He has the right connections, he has the staying profile and he comes here from the stable most closely associated with modern Derby success. If the favourite fluffs his lines, this could be the one that steps forward.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Ambiente Friendly (10/1 available)
A strong trial horse and one that makes plenty of sense on the trends.
He has the recent-run angle, he has shown the right sort of ability in the prep stage and he looks likely to be suited by the mile and a half. He may lack the big-name profile of the top two, but he looks a proper Derby contender.
SUMMARY
City Of Troy tops the figures and gets the vote, with Los Angeles and Ambiente Friendly the two strongest alternatives in a Derby that again looks likely to reward class.
