Date: Saturday 3rd June 2023
This looks a fascinating Derby because we have a mix of strong trial winners, one very high-class colt trying to put a poor prep behind him and a couple of improvers who could take a big step forward.
The recent Derby trends still point towards class, strong prep form and a middle-to-high draw being positives, but this year’s field also asks how much forgiveness you are willing to show a really talented horse.
On the Turf Talk figures, these are the ones to focus on.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| Auguste Rodin | 220 |
| Arrest | 214 |
| Military Order | 207 |
| Passenger | 193 |
| The Foxes | 186 |
| Continuous | 179 |
| Sprewell | 171 |
The ratings this year balance raw class against final-prep form. Most recent Derby winners had finished first or second in their prep, so that is a meaningful factor, but truly top-class colts can sometimes overcome a blip.
MAIN SELECTION
Auguste Rodin (11/4 available)
He just edges it on class, despite the obvious question mark hanging over his Guineas run.
If you forgive that one effort, he has the strongest overall profile in the race. He has the Ballydoyle angle, the rating, the pedigree and the type of ability that wins Derbys. He is not bombproof, but he still comes out on top.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Arrest (4/1 available)
He brings the ideal prep profile into the race and looks a very serious contender.
His latest run was exactly the sort of Derby trial you want to see, and he has the type of staying power that should be well suited to Epsom. If the favourite disappoints again, he looks the most likely to take advantage.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
Military Order (7/2 available)
Another who makes plenty of sense on the trends and the ratings.
He has the Godolphin angle, the draw and the prep form to put up a major performance. He may not have the same aura as the top two in the betting, but he looks very likely to run well.
SUMMARY
Auguste Rodin gets the vote on class, with Arrest the solid alternative and Military Order another who makes a lot of appeal on current trends.
