2:20 Aintree – Manifesto Novices' Chase
At first glance this looks a small field, but it is actually a really interesting race from a trends and profile perspective.
The Manifesto Novices’ Chase has been fairly consistent over the years, and there are a few key patterns that stand out. Most winners tend to be in that 6 to 8-year-old bracket, already proven over fences, and usually arrive here with a solid level of experience rather than being completely unexposed.
One of the more interesting angles is that recent winners have not been coming here off victories. In fact, none of the last 11 winners won their previous race, which suggests this is often about the right profile and setup rather than simply siding with the most obvious last-time-out winner.
As always, I have used the Turf Talk ratings and eliminator to work through the field, focusing on the runners that best fit the historical profile alongside the current form and conditions.
Key Trends
- 10/11 winners aged 6-8
- 9/11 winners rated 150 or higher
- 8/11 winners ran within the last 48 days
- 9/11 winners had run over 19-21 furlongs before
- 10/11 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs
- 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
- 11/11 winners had at least 5 hurdle runs
- 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season
- 0/11 winners won last time out
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Trend Matches
Runners ranked by how closely they match the historical winning profile for this race.
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koktail Divin | 95% | Ideal age, rated 150, right run style, strong chase profile | Going record weak | ELITE PROFILE |
| Jax Junior | 93% | Ideal age, strong distance record, solid chase experience | Rating just below ideal | VERY STRONG |
| Blueking d’Oroux | 91% | Ideal age, good going and distance record, strong stable form | Rating slightly below ideal | STRONG |
| Lulamba | 89% | Top class horse, big rating, excellent trainer-jockey combination | Age against key trend, won last time | CLASS ACT |
| Mambonumberfive | 86% | Strong going and course form, good recent profile | No proven record at this trip | SHORTLIST |
95%+ = Elite trend match | 90–94% = Strong contender | 85–89% = Shortlist
Turf Talk Ratings – Full Field
The rating is calculated using the full Turf Talk model. The columns below highlight key trends alongside trainer and jockey form.
| Horse | Rating | Age | Distance | Recent | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koktail Divin | 228 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Jax Junior | 223 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓ |
| Blueking d’Oroux | 219 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ |
| Lulamba | 216 | ✗ | ? | ✗ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Mambonumberfive | 209 | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | ? = unproven
Turf Talk Selections
Koktail Divin looks the most solid all-round fit on the Turf Talk ratings. He ticks the key age trend, has the required class, and profiles very well on chase experience and race setup. This looks the right sort of race for him to bounce back in.
Jax Junior is another strong contender, bringing the right age, strong distance form and a trainer in excellent recent form. He looks one of the safest profiles in the field.
Blueking d’Oroux also makes the shortlist, with a solid blend of trends, distance form and a very strong trainer-jockey combination.
Verdict: Koktail Divin (7/2 available) gets the vote, with Jax Junior the main danger and Blueking d’Oroux the other to keep firmly on side.
