Lockinge Stakes 2026 Preview
The Lockinge Stakes is one of the premier mile contests of the early Flat season and this year’s renewal looks particularly strong, featuring proven Group 1 performers alongside progressive four-year-olds still open to improvement.
At Turf Talk, every runner has been assessed using our combined trends and ratings model, incorporating historical Lockinge trends, current trainer and jockey form, speed figures, ratings, progression profiles and suitability for Newbury’s straight mile.
The current going is expected to be good, which should place an emphasis on tactical pace, strong finishing speed and proven Group-level class.
Key Lockinge Stakes Trends
• 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 115+ in their last 3 starts
• 20/20 winners were no bigger than 22/1
• 20/20 winners ran in 6-21 career races
• 20/20 winners had between 3 and 10 career wins
• 20/20 winners achieved a TS of 88+ in their last 5 starts
• 20/20 winners returned from breaks between 20 and 290 days
• 20/20 winners had 2-6 placings within the last year
• 20/20 winners ran 3-8 times in the previous year
• 20/20 winners achieved a TS of 76+ in their last 3 runs
Additional trend analysis from the race profile strongly highlighted More Thunder, who achieved a perfect 15/15 trends match, while Damysus, Notable Speech and Sahlan also rated highly on the historical profile.
Turf Talk Ratings
| Horse | Rating | Trainer | Jockey | Trend Match | Key Positives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damysus | 241 | Gosden | James Doyle | 14/15 | Outstanding recent figures, Earl Of Sefton winner, strong trends profile, stable flying | TOP RATED |
| More Thunder | 239 | Haggas | Tom Marquand | 15/15 | Perfect trends profile, unbeaten last season, ideal race setup, major improver angle | MAIN DANGER |
| Notable Speech | 237 | Appleby | William Buick | 14/15 | Highest official figures in field, elite Group form, strong Appleby/Buick combination | BIG PLAYER |
| The Lion In Winter | 233 | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore | 13/15 | Moore booked, excellent comeback win, yard in superb recent form | SHORTLIST |
| Sahlan | 229 | Graffard | Barzalona | 14/15 | Strong French profile, ideal trends fit, trainer and jockey both in excellent form | DARK HORSE |
| Cicero’s Gift | 225 | Charles Hills | Jason Watson | 12/15 | Course winner with strong TS figures but slightly weaker recent setup | PLACE CHANCE |
| Zeus Olympios | 223 | K R Burke | Clifford Lee | 12/15 | Progressive profile and unbeaten streak before latest effort | RESPECTED |
| Jonquil | 219 | Andrew Balding | Colin Keane | 9/15 | Improving four-year-old but trends profile weaker than principals | OUTSIDER |
The Turf Talk ratings combine historical trends, speed figures, ratings, trainer form, jockey form, progression potential and suitability for conditions.
Final Verdict
Selections: Damysus (10/3) narrowly tops the Turf Talk ratings after a hugely impressive Earl Of Sefton success and profiles as a horse still improving into Group 1 company. The Gosden stable continues in excellent form and James Doyle is riding particularly well.
The fascinating runner is More Thunder (15/2), who achieved a perfect trends match and looks exactly the type of progressive miler this race often rewards. William Haggas has an excellent recent record with older milers and this has clearly been the long-term target.
Others to note: Notable Speech commands obvious respect on raw ability and figures and also with Charlie Appleby’s horses appearing to be coming back to form, while The Lion In Winter looks the strongest Ballydoyle contender with Ryan Moore booked and recent winning form already under his belt.
French raider Sahlan is another who rates much higher than the market may expect and could easily outrun bigger odds if handling Newbury’s straight mile.
Pure Trends Rankings
The table below ranks the runners purely on historical Lockinge Stakes trends without the Turf Talk ratings model. This allows us to compare the strongest statistical fits against the final blended ratings approach.
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Trend Positives | Trend Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| More Thunder | 15/15 | Perfect trends profile, ideal age bracket, ideal prep, strong TS/RPR profile, unbeaten progression angle | OUTSTANDING MATCH |
| Damysus | 14/15 | Excellent recent figures, ideal campaign profile, strong market/trends alignment | ELITE PROFILE |
| Notable Speech | 14/15 | High-class profile with strong TS and RPR metrics throughout career | ELITE PROFILE |
| Sahlan | 14/15 | Excellent age/setup profile with ideal preparation and strong recent ratings | VERY STRONG MATCH |
| The Lion In Winter | 13/15 | Recent winner with strong Ballydoyle profile and ideal market position | STRONG MATCH |
| Cicero’s Gift | 12/15 | Strong TS profile and proven course form | SOLID MATCH |
| Zeus Olympios | 12/15 | Improving profile and consistent recent figures | SOLID MATCH |
| Dancing Gemini | 11/15 | Meets several core trends but weaker overall ratings profile | FAIR MATCH |
| Jonquil | 9/15 | Improving but misses several key historical indicators | QUESTION MARKS |
| Mississippi River | 8/15 | Trainer and jockey positives but weaker trends alignment overall | WEAKER PROFILE |
