Hardwicke Stakes 2026
The Hardwicke Stakes is one of Royal Ascot’s strongest middle-distance Group races. Run over 1m4f, it usually rewards a proven older horse with Group-class form, a high recent RPR, solid stamina and enough tactical speed to hold a position in a race that can turn into a real test from the home straight.
This year’s renewal is a deep race with Kalpana, Jan Brueghel, Goliath, Giavellotto, Ethical Diamond and Best Secret all bringing serious credentials. From a pure trends perspective, Best Secret and Kalpana both achieved a perfect 15/15 match, while Amiloc, Ethical Diamond, Goliath, Santorini Star and West Wind Blows all score strongly on 13/15.
The star-rating table below follows the same expanded format as the previous Royal Ascot race pages, with trends, ratings, speed, trainer angles and overall profile all combined into one final view.
Key Hardwicke Stakes Trends
- Market Position: 20/20 winners were within the first 6 of the market.
- Recent RPR: 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 108+ last time out.
- Starting Price: 20/20 winners were no bigger than 16/1.
- Last-Time Margin: 20/20 winners were beaten no more than 7¼ lengths last time out.
- Debut Trip: 20/20 winners debuted over 7f to 1m½f.
- Stamina: 20/20 winners had won over 1m2½f to 1m6f.
- Non-Handicap Form: 20/20 winners had 4-18 placings in non-handicaps.
- Further Trip Exposure: 20/20 winners had fewer than three races over further.
- Recent Class: 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ within their last three starts.
- Recent Speed: 20/20 winners achieved a TS of 82+ within their last three starts.
- Last Win Class: 20/20 winners did not record their latest win in Class 2-5 company.
- Recent Winning Form: 20/20 winners had 1-7 wins within the last year.
- Going RPR: 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 93+ on the going.
- Highest Win: 20/20 winners had not recorded their highest win in Class 2-5 company.
The pure trends shortlist is headed by Best Secret and Kalpana, who both achieved a perfect 15/15 match. Amiloc, Ethical Diamond, Goliath, Santorini Star and West Wind Blows all score strongly on 13/15, with Giavellotto and Jan Brueghel both on 12/15.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
| Horse | Trends | Rating | RPR/TS | Profile | Speed | Trainer | Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalpana | 15/15 | 394 | 137 / 135 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | Perfect 15/15 trends match, joint-top RPR, best Topspeed figure, mare receives weight and Andrew Balding yard is in good form. | Short price and has to confirm she can dominate a deep Group race against battle-hardened older males. | Main Selection |
| Jan Brueghel | 12/15 | 386 | 137 / 125 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | Joint-top RPR, A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore combination, strong Group profile and excellent recent form. | Only 12/15 trends and must concede the weight advantage to Kalpana. | Main Danger |
| Goliath | 13/15 | 382 | 135 / 92 | ★★★★☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | Strong 13/15 trends match, very high RPR, recent winner and proven top-class performer. | Topspeed figure is notably lower than the main rivals. | Class Danger |
| Giavellotto | 12/15 | 380 | 133 / 127 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | ★★★☆☆ | Strong RPR/TS combination, proven high-class stayer and excellent going record. | Dropping back to 1m4f could test whether he has enough pace at this trip. | Ratings Danger |
| Ethical Diamond | 13/15 | 376 | 133 / 120 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | Strong 13/15 trends score, high RPR and W P Mullins profile gives him a dangerous improver feel. | Needs to prove he is quite good enough at this Group level on the Flat. | Each-Way Chance |
| West Wind Blows | 13/15 | 374 | 129 / 128 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | ★☆☆☆☆ | Strong 13/15 trends score and excellent Topspeed/RPR balance. | Simon & Ed Crisford yard is 0-19 in recent data and the horse has been finding one too good. | Speed Player |
| Best Secret | 15/15 | 370 | 128 / 110 | ★★★★★ | ★★★☆☆ | ★☆☆☆☆ | Perfect 15/15 trends match and arrives here as a recent winner. | Needs to improve on raw ratings and trainer record is quiet in the supplied data. | Trends Value |
| Santorini Star | 13/15 | 366 | 127 / 119 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | Strong 13/15 trends match, unbeaten on the going and William Haggas yard is in strong form. | Needs a career best to beat the leading Group horses. | Place Chance |
| Amiloc | 13/15 | 362 | 129 / 111 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Solid 13/15 trends score and a good RPR profile. | Needs to bounce back from latest run and has a finish concern in Postdata. | Outside Chance |
| Lambourn | 11/15 | 360 | 133 / 123 | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | High RPR/TS, A P O’Brien yard and strong Group profile. | Only 11/15 trends and needs to rebound from recent form. | Class Outsider |
| Phantom Flight | 10/15 | 352 | 126 / 111 | ★★☆☆☆ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Good going record and useful RPR level. | Needs a big career best and trends score is lower than ideal. | Big Ask |
Key: ★★★★★ excellent, ★★★★☆ strong, ★★★☆☆ fair, ★★☆☆☆ below ideal, ★☆☆☆☆ concern.
Final Turf Talk Filter
The final shortlist is headed by Kalpana, Jan Brueghel, Goliath, Giavellotto, Ethical Diamond, West Wind Blows and Best Secret.
Kalpana comes out on top because she combines the perfect 15/15 trends match with the best Topspeed figure in the field and a joint-top RPR. She also receives weight, which could be a major factor against the older males.
Jan Brueghel is the obvious danger. He is joint-top on RPR and represents the A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore combination, but his 12/15 trends score and Kalpana’s weight allowance just tilt the final verdict away from him.
Goliath is a serious class danger with a big RPR and 13/15 trends score, but his lower Topspeed figure is a slight concern in this particular setup.
Giavellotto and West Wind Blows bring strong speed figures, while Ethical Diamond and Best Secret are both respected on the trends.
Hardwicke Stakes 2026 Tips
1. Kalpana 5/2
Kalpana is the Turf Talk selection after achieving a perfect 15/15 trends score.
She has the joint-top RPR, best Topspeed figure and receives weight from the main dangers. That combination makes her the most compelling all-round profile.
2. Jan Brueghel 9/2
Jan Brueghel is the main danger.
He has a joint-top RPR, strong Group profile and the A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore combination. He is a major player despite a slightly lower trends score.
3. Goliath 11/2
Goliath is the class danger.
He has a strong 13/15 trends score and one of the best RPR figures in the race. The only concern is whether his Topspeed figure leaves him vulnerable to a sharper rival.
Turf Talk Verdict
Kalpana gets the vote in the Hardwicke Stakes. She is a perfect trends match, has the best Topspeed figure in the race and receives weight from the main dangers. Jan Brueghel is feared most, while Goliath, Giavellotto and Ethical Diamond are all respected.
Final Selection
Kalpana
1st: Kalpana 5/2
2nd: Jan Brueghel 9/2
3rd: Goliath 11/2
Each-Way Angle: Ethical Diamond 10/1
Ratings Danger: Giavellotto 9/1
The Hardwicke Stakes is a high-class renewal, but the balance of trends, ratings, speed and weight allowance points most strongly towards Kalpana.
