Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper 2026 Preview
This is a very different sort of race to the handicaps and the big chases, but the Turf Talk approach still works well because there are some clear patterns that keep repeating.
In a bumper like this, I am not just looking at bare form figures. I want the right age profile, the right recent run, enough substance in the ratings and the sort of stable and jockey angles that can make a real difference in these races.
For example:
– 18 of the last 20 winners were no older than 5
– 20 of the last 20 were within the first 12 in the market
– 20 of the last 20 had achieved an RPR of 89+ during the season
– 18 of the last 20 had achieved an RPR of 102+ in their last 3 runs
– 18 of the last 20 ran over 2m or further last time out
– 20 of the last 20 were no bigger than 28/1
These races can still throw up surprises, but there is a definite type that tends to do well. Every runner has been put through the Turf Talk Eliminator, and the remaining contenders have then been scored using our ratings model, which brings together the trends, recent form and trainer and jockey performance.
Key Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper Trends
• 18/20 winners were no older than 5
• 20/20 were within the first 12 in the market
• 20/20 were no bigger than 28/1
• 20/20 achieved an RPR of 89+ during the season
• 18/20 achieved an RPR of 102+ in their last 3 runs
• 18/20 ran over 2m or further last time out
• 19/20 were no bigger than 20/1 last time out
• 19/20 won in fields of 5-19 runners on their previous win
These trends form the core of the eliminator, with trainer and jockey form used as supporting factors rather than the main driver.
The Turf Talk Eliminator
After applying the core trends, a good number of runners can be pushed aside quite quickly.
To qualify for the final shortlist, mares needed to:
- Fit the key age profile, ideally 5yo
- Bring enough substance in their RPR figures
- Have shown form over 2m or further
- Arrive here with a solid recent run profile
- Still look progressive rather than exposed
After applying those filters, the following mares stand out as the strongest statistical fits and form the core shortlist.
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Trend Matches
Runners ranked by how closely they match the historical Nickel Coin Mares’ Bumper profile.
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ti’mamzel | 95% | 5yo, strong RPR, progressive profile, trainer in form | Not the strongest jockey angle in the field | ELITE PROFILE |
| Princess Day | 94% | Unbeaten profile, excellent seasonal figures, perfect age fit | Trainer and jockey form cold | VERY STRONG |
| Nan’s Choice | 92% | Strong Skelton team angle, ideal age, good recent profile | Slightly less depth of form than the top two | STRONG CONTENDER |
| Kiltybo | 90% | Strong distance form, excellent RPR, arrives off a win | Trainer and jockey harder to weigh up | SOLID FIT |
| Burds Of A Feather | 89% | Strong TS and RPR profile, winning form at the trip | Profile not quite as clean as the top four | SHORTLIST |
| Seven Stars | 87% | Good profile, right age, solid recent run | A touch below the leading figures on ratings | FRINGE PLAYER |
95%+ = Elite trend match | 90–94% = Strong contender | Below 90% = Needs improvement in profile
Turf Talk Ratings
TOP 8 + KEY TREND SNAPSHOT
The rating is calculated using the full Turf Talk model. The columns below highlight key trends alongside trainer and jockey form.
| Horse | Rating | Age | Recent | Distance | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ti’mamzel | 234 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ |
| Princess Day | 231 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Nan’s Choice | 228 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Kiltybo | 225 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ? | ? |
| Burds Of A Feather | 222 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ? | ✓✓ |
| Seven Stars | 218 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ |
| Lennon Grove | 214 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Peace Belle | 211 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | ? = unproven
Final Selections
Ti’mamzel
She comes out top on the updated eliminator and the full ratings model. The profile is progressive, the seasonal figures are strong and the trainer form only adds to the appeal. She looks one of the most solid contenders in the race.
Princess Day
Another who scores very strongly on both the trends and the ratings. The unbeaten profile and strong figures make her a major player, even if the trainer and jockey form is not quite as strong as some of the others.
Nan’s Choice
The Skelton angle is an obvious plus and she also fits the race trends nicely. With the stable and jockey both in very good form, she looks one to keep firmly on side.
