Earl Of Sefton Stakes 2026
The Earl Of Sefton Stakes is often a race where the classiest runner still needs to fit the right profile. This is not just about official ratings. It is about proven 8f to 10f ability, previous Newmarket experience, enough overall flat experience and the right age band for this Group 3 test.
At Turf Talk, every runner has been put through the full model. First the historical trends were applied to identify the right type. Then the Turf Talk ratings model was used to rank the strongest overall profiles. Finally, the field was filtered again for the key factors that matter most in this race, namely proven effectiveness at the trip, suitability to conditions, reliability and overall Group race readiness.
This is a compact six runner field, but there are still clear differences between the runners once the trends, ratings and final filter are applied together. The table below gives the full Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings view for the race.
Key Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends
• 8 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or 5
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket
• 8 of the last 11 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Newmarket
• 6 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newmarket
• 11 of the last 11 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 8f to 10f
• 11 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous win over 8f to 10f
• 7 of the last 11 winners had at least 2 wins over 8f to 10f
• 9 of the last 11 winners had at least 8 previous flat runs
• 9 of the last 11 winners had at least 2 flat wins
• 11 of the last 11 winners were rated 106 or higher
• 19 of the last 20 winners were placed within their last 3 starts
• 18 of the last 20 winners achieved a TS of 52+ last time out
• 18 of the last 20 winners achieved a career TS of 95+
We also use the supporting profile factors supplied in the wider trends pack, including market position, recent winning activity, likely suitability for the race conditions and the strength of the horse’s past winning profile.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
Trend Match % reflects how closely each runner fits the historical Earl Of Sefton winner profile. Turf Talk Ratings are shown on our established 200+ scale, with trip suitability given extra importance in this race.
| Horse | Trends % | Rating | Age | Weight | Stamina | Recent | Trainer | Jockey | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damysus | 94% | 229 | 4 | 9-5 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Ideal age, proven course and distance winner, highest upside in the field, strong ratings profile and arrives off a win | Slightly less recent match fitness than a couple of rivals after the break, jockey form is solid rather than flying | LEADING CONTENDER |
| Boiling Point | 90% | 223 | 5 | 9-2 | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Ticks the main age trend, has course and distance form, recent run under his belt and the latest RPR figure is one of the strongest in the field | Only fourth last time and does not look quite as rock solid at the trip as the selection | STRONG CONTENDER |
| Persica | 89% | 221 | 5 | 9-2 | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | Excellent course and distance record, ideal age, very strong suitability to the track and trip, top jockey booking boosts confidence | Comes here off weaker recent form figures than the top two and lacks the same immediate momentum | STRONG CONTENDER |
| Skukuza | 82% | 214 | 5 | 9-2 | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✗ | ✓✓ | Recent match fitness, age fits, Ryan Moore booked and generally reliable enough in this grade | No win at the distance, limited course strike rate and trainer form is a clear concern | SHORTLIST |
| King’s Gambit | 78% | 209 | 5 | 9-2 | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | Age fits the race well and has enough raw ability to be competitive at this level on his day | No proven course win, no distance win and the stable has drawn a blank in the last 14 days | NEEDS MORE |
| Prague | 63% | 196 | 6 | 9-2 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | Has some past class and a previous course win, plus first time headgear could sharpen him up | Older than ideal, poor going record, no distance win and overall profile is weaker than the principals | VERY HARD TO MAKE A CASE |
90%+ = elite trend match | 85-89% = strong profile | 80-84% = workable shortlist case | below 80% = needs compensation elsewhere
Final Selections
Damysus
He looks the standout when the three part Turf Talk process is applied properly. The trends place him right in the sweet spot as a four year old, the ratings love the proven course and distance win, and the final filter is passed comfortably because he has already shown he handles this exact test. In a small but classy field, he looks the most likely winner rather than just the most talented horse.
Boiling Point
He comes out as the main danger on the model because he fits the core age and class trends, has already shown course and distance competence and arrives with a recent run under his belt. There is not much room for error at this level, but his latest figures and overall profile suggest he is the runner most likely to capitalise if the favourite is not at his sharpest first time back.
Persica
Persica is the runner that keeps forcing his way into the conversation because the course and distance data is so solid and the Oisin Murphy booking catches the eye straight away. He does have a bit more to prove on recent momentum than the first two, but the track, trip and overall profile still give him a very realistic place in the final three.
Verdict
Damysus is the selection on the full Turf Talk model, with Boiling Point the main danger and Persica the third horse to keep firmly on side.
