Norfolk Stakes 2026
The Norfolk Stakes is one of Royal Ascot’s sharpest juvenile sprint tests. Run over 5f, it demands raw speed, precocity, a strong early pace profile and the ability to handle the unique pressure of a big-field Royal Ascot two-year-old race.
This year’s renewal has two perfect trends horses in Carry The Flag and Ez Tina, who both achieved a full 15/15 match. The wider Turf Talk model also gives strong respect to Flight Signal, Force Noir, Where Love Lives, Fanshell Beach, Through The Years, Orthodox and Social Symbol.
The star-rating table below follows the same expanded format as the previous Royal Ascot race pages, with trends, ratings, speed, trainer angles and overall profile all combined into one final view.
Key Norfolk Stakes Trends
- Sex: 20/20 winners were not geldings.
- Debut Weight: 20/20 winners carried 118-131lbs on debut.
- Break Since Placing: 20/20 winners had a break of 8-62 days since their latest placing.
- Career Place Price: 20/20 winners were no bigger than 14/1 when placing during their career.
- Trip Wins: 20/20 winners had fewer than two wins over the trip.
- Freshness: 20/20 winners came here off a break of 8-62 days.
- Debut Price: 20/20 winners were no bigger than 14/1 on debut.
- Market Position: 19/20 winners were within the first 9 of the market.
- Career Win Price: 18/20 winners were no bigger than 11/1 when winning during their career.
- Last Win Location: 18/20 winners did not record their latest win in France or Wales.
- Last Win Field Size: 18/20 winners won in a field of 4-18 runners last time they won.
- Last Win Weight: 18/20 winners carried 118-134lbs on their latest win.
- Highest Win: 18/20 winners had not recorded their highest win in Group 3 company.
- Starting Price: 17/20 winners were no bigger than 14/1.
- Recent RPR: 16/20 winners had achieved an RPR of 85+ last time out.
The pure trends shortlist is headed by Carry The Flag and Ez Tina, who both achieved a perfect 15/15 match. Flight Signal, Force Noir, Where Love Lives, Fanshell Beach and Through The Years are also respected on the wider profile, while Orthodox, Social Symbol and Savage Mariner bring interesting pace and market angles.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
| Horse | Trends | Rating | RPR/TS | Profile | Speed | Trainer | Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carry The Flag | 15/15 | 392 | 108 / 91 | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | ★★★★★ | Perfect 15/15 trends match, highest RPR in the field, strong Topspeed, Ryan Moore booked and A P O’Brien has a strong Norfolk record. | Short enough in the market and drawn 13 in a big-field juvenile sprint. | Main Selection |
| Ez Tina | 15/15 | 384 | 104 / – | ★★★★★ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Perfect 15/15 trends match, strong RPR from one run and Wesley Ward has already won this race. | No Topspeed figure supplied and the Wesley Ward recent yard data is quiet. | Main Danger |
| Force Noir | Shortlist | 378 | 98 / 92 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | ★★☆☆☆ | Best Topspeed figure in the race, strong RPR/TS balance and already has useful experience. | Trainer record is light and draw 19 could be tricky. | Speed Danger |
| Flight Signal | Shortlist | 374 | 101 / 84 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Strong RPR on debut, James Doyle booked and drawn middle-low in stall 6. | Archie Watson yard is 0-32 in the recent trainer data. | Shortlist |
| Where Love Lives | Shortlist | 370 | 96 / 91 | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | ★☆☆☆☆ | Unbeaten, very strong Topspeed figure and comes here off an ideal recent win. | Kevin Ryan yard is 0-32 in recent data and the RPR is below the main selection. | Speed Player |
| Fanshell Beach | Shortlist | 368 | 106 / – | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Second-best RPR in the field, James McDonald booked and Wesley Ward juvenile speed angle. | No Topspeed figure supplied and draw 11 leaves a pace question. | RPR Danger |
| Through The Years | Shortlist | 366 | 103 / – | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Strong RPR, John Velazquez booked and another Wesley Ward runner with a Royal Ascot sprint profile. | No Topspeed figure supplied and market position is less compelling. | Outside Chance |
| Orthodox | Shortlist | 360 | 87 / 31 | ★★★☆☆ | ★☆☆☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Unbeaten and Rossa Ryan booked for Clive Cox. | Speed figure is weak compared with the main contenders. | Needs More Speed |
| Social Symbol | Shortlist | 358 | 94 / 85 | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★☆☆☆☆ | Good TS/RPR blend and William Buick booked. | Simon & Ed Crisford yard is 0-23 in recent data. | Possible |
| Star Prospect | Shortlist | 356 | 94 / 55 | ★★★☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Joseph O’Brien runner with experience and a decent RPR. | Needs more on the clock and Postdata flags a finish concern. | Place Outsider |
| Savage Mariner | Shortlist | 354 | 93 / 87 | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Good Topspeed figure and Tom Marquand booked. | Needs to improve on RPR and is drawn wide in stall 20. | Speed Outsider |
| Persian Spring | Shortlist | 352 | 97 / 84 | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Solid RPR/TS and Richard Hannon has a strong juvenile sprint background. | Jamie Spencer recent data is quiet and needs more improvement. | Outside Chance |
Key: ★★★★★ excellent, ★★★★☆ strong, ★★★☆☆ fair, ★★☆☆☆ below ideal, ★☆☆☆☆ concern.
Final Turf Talk Filter
The final shortlist is headed by Carry The Flag, Ez Tina, Force Noir, Flight Signal, Where Love Lives, Fanshell Beach and Through The Years.
Carry The Flag comes out on top because he has the strongest all-round profile. He is a perfect 15/15 trends match, owns the best RPR in the race, has a strong Topspeed figure and has Ryan Moore booked for A P O’Brien.
Ez Tina is the main danger. She is the other perfect 15/15 trends match and brings Wesley Ward’s strong juvenile sprint profile, although the lack of a Topspeed figure makes her harder to assess fully.
Force Noir is the speed danger. He has the best Topspeed figure in the race and a solid RPR, so he could be dangerous if the high-drawn pace develops favourably.
Flight Signal, Where Love Lives and Fanshell Beach all have enough ability to be involved, while Through The Years has the profile of a possible Royal Ascot improver.
Norfolk Stakes 2026 Tips
1. Carry The Flag 9/4
Carry The Flag is the Turf Talk selection after achieving a perfect 15/15 trends score.
He has the strongest overall profile in the race, owns the best RPR, has a strong Topspeed figure and brings the A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore combination.
2. Ez Tina 10/1
Ez Tina is the main danger.
She is the other perfect 15/15 trends match and represents Wesley Ward, who has a strong history with Royal Ascot juvenile sprinters.
3. Force Noir 10/1
Force Noir is the speed angle.
He has the best Topspeed figure in the race and enough RPR strength to be a big player if the race develops favourably from the high side.
Turf Talk Verdict
Carry The Flag gets the vote in the Norfolk Stakes. He is a perfect trends match, has the best RPR in the race and brings the powerful A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore combination. Ez Tina is the main danger on trends, while Force Noir is the strongest speed angle.
Final Selection
Carry The Flag
1st: Carry The Flag 9/4
2nd: Ez Tina 10/1
3rd: Force Noir 10/1
Each-Way Angle: Flight Signal 8/1
Speed Danger: Where Love Lives 12/1
The Norfolk Stakes is always a fast and unpredictable juvenile sprint, but the trends, ratings and overall profile point most strongly towards Carry The Flag.
