2:55 Aintree – Bowl Chase
This is always one of the standout races of the Aintree meeting and, despite the small field, it is a race where the trends are very strong and reliable.
Looking back at recent renewals, there is a clear type that tends to win this. Most winners are aged between 8 and 10, already proven at this trip, and crucially bring a high level of class into the race with a rating of 168 or higher.
Another key angle is recent form. Interestingly, none of the last 11 winners won their previous race, which again points towards this being about the right profile rather than simply siding with the most obvious last-time-out winner.
Using the Turf Talk ratings and eliminator, we can narrow this down to the runners that best match that proven winning profile.
Key Trends
- 9/11 winners aged 8-10
- 9/11 winners rated 168+
- 0/11 winners won last time out
- 9/11 ran within last 46 days
- 8/11 had Aintree experience
- 11/11 had at least 1 win at this trip
- 9/11 had 2+ wins at this trip
- 11/11 had at least 7 chase runs
- 11/11 had graded wins (most multiple)
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Profiles
| Horse | Trends Match | Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jango Baie | 95% | Ideal age, top rating, strong recent run, progressive | Limited distance exposure | ELITE PROFILE |
| Impaire Et Passe | 93% | Ideal age, strong yard, excellent course record | Unproven at trip | VERY STRONG |
| Spillane’s Tower | 92% | Strong distance profile, right age, improving | Trainer form weak | STRONG |
| Protektorat | 90% | Proven class, strong distance form | Age negative (11yo) | CLASS ANGLE |
| Pic d’Orhy | 88% | Trainer in form, solid profile | Age + distance concerns | SHORTLIST |
Turf Talk Ratings – Full Field
| Horse | Rating | Age | Distance | Recent | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jango Baie | 232 | ✓ | ? | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Impaire Et Passe | 228 | ✓ | ? | ✗ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Spillane’s Tower | 224 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Protektorat | 220 | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Pic d’Orhy | 214 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | ? = unproven
Turf Talk Selections
Jango Baie comes out top on both the ratings and the eliminator, ticking the key age and class trends while still looking open to improvement. This is the type that often wins this race.
Impaire Et Passe is a major player, particularly with his course record and the strength of the Mullins yard, but the lack of proven stamina at this trip is a slight concern.
Spillane’s Tower is the interesting one at a bigger price, bringing a strong staying profile and fitting the key age trends nicely.
Verdict: Not an exciting one but Jango Baie (11/8 available) gets the vote, with Impaire Et Passe the main danger and Spillane’s Tower the value angle.
