Grand National 2026 Preview
The Grand National is unlike any other race in the calendar and because of that, we don’t approach it like one.
At Turf Talk, this race is built on a proven trends-based system, refined using over 30 years of historical data. While many punters focus on form alone, the Grand National consistently rewards those who understand the profile of a typical winner.
For example:
– 32 of the last 34 winners ran within the last 55 days
– 30 of the last 34 had already won over at least 3 miles
– 25 of the last 34 carried 10-13 or less
– 23 of the last 31 winners were aged between 8–10
– 20 of the last 26 winners were Irish-bred
– 5 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue-tie
These are not coincidences, they are repeatable patterns. Every runner in this year’s race has been put through our Turf Talk Eliminator, removing those who don’t fit the winning profile. The remaining runners are then scored using our ratings system, incorporating trends, form, trainer/jockey performance and race conditions. This gives us a data-led shortlist and final selections with a proven edge.
Key Grand National Trends
• 33/34 winners rated 137+
• 32/34 ran within 55 days
• 30/34 won over 3m+
• 25/34 carried 10-13 or less
• 23/34 aged 10 or younger
• 22/34 finished top 4 last time out
• 20/34 Irish-bred
• 14/34 Irish-trained (11 of last 19)
• 16/28 had National-type race form
• 26/28 had fallen no more than twice
These trends form the core of our eliminator model.
The Turf Talk Eliminator
After applying the core trends, a large number of runners are immediately ruled out.
To qualify for the final shortlist, horses needed to:
- Be rated 137+
- Have proven stamina over 3m+
- Have run within the last 55 days
- Sit within the key age and weight ranges
- Show strong recent form
After applying these filters, the following runners stand out as the strongest statistical fits. These runners match the overwhelming majority of winning trends and form the core shortlist.
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Trend Matches
Runners ranked by how closely they match the historical Grand National winning profile (based on key trends).
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Rockett | 95% | Ideal age, strong recent form, stamina proven, solid prep run | Weight slightly high | ELITE PROFILE |
| Haiti Couleurs | 94% | Excellent form, stamina proven, fits age and recency trends | Weight negative | VERY STRONG |
| Iroko | 92% | Consistent profile, strong recent runs, ideal age bracket | Track experience limited | STRONG CONTENDER |
| Stellar Story | 91% | Ticks many core trends, solid overall profile | Limited track evidence | SOLID FIT |
| Johnnywho | 90% | Strong age/weight combo, consistent recent form | Less proven at extreme stamina | LIVE OUTSIDER |
| Captain Cody | 89% | Good trend alignment, solid form profile | Just below elite threshold | SHORTLIST |
95%+ = Elite trend match | 90–94% = Strong contender | Below 90% = Needs improvement in profile
Turf Talk Ratings
TOP 15 + KEY TREND SNAPSHOT
The rating is calculated using the full Turf Talk model. The columns below highlight key trends alongside trainer and jockey form.
| Horse | Rating | Age | Weight | Stamina | Recent | Trainer | Jockey | Headgear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Rockett (20/1) | 241 | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | — |
| I Am Maximus (8/1) | 238 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | p |
| Haiti Couleurs (20/1) | 231 | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | — |
| Iroko (16/1) | 226 | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | t |
| Gerri Colombe (33/1) | 224 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | p |
| Stellar Story (33/1) | 221 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓✓ | tb |
| Jagwar (16/1) | 219 | ? | ✓ | ? | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | tp1 |
| Grangeclare West (12/1) | 217 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | — |
| Banbridge (50/1) | 214 | ✗ | ✗ | ? | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | v |
| Johnnywho (16/1) | 212 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | w2 tp |
| Captain Cody (20/1) | 208 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | — |
| Final Orders (25/1) | 206 | ✗ | ✓ | ? | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | — |
| Panic Attack (16/1) | 204 | ✗ | ✓ | ? | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | — |
| Beauport (150/1) | 202 | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | △ | ✓✓ | ✗ | w2 t1 |
| Mr Vango (100/1) | 201 | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | △ | ✗ | ✓ | tp |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | ? = unproven
Final Selections
Nick Rockett (20/1 available)
A standout on the ratings and a horse that fits the vast majority of key trends. Strong recent form, ideal age profile and proven stamina make him one of the most solid contenders in the field.
Haiti Couleurs (20/1 available)
Another who scores extremely well across both trends and ratings. Has the right profile for this race and comes here in strong form. One that ticks almost every box.
Iroko (16/1 available)
A consistent performer who looks well suited to the demands of this race. Strong recent runs and a solid overall profile suggest he should be right in the mix.
