Grand National 2026 Preview
The Grand National is unlike any other race in the calendar and because of that, we don’t approach it like one.
At Turf Talk, this race is built on a proven trends-based system, refined using over 30 years of historical data. While many punters focus on form alone, the Grand National consistently rewards those who understand the profile of a typical winner.
For example:
– 32 of the last 34 winners ran within the last 55 days
– 30 of the last 34 had already won over at least 3 miles
– 25 of the last 34 carried 10-13 or less
– 23 of the last 31 winners were aged between 8 and 10
– 20 of the last 26 winners were Irish-bred
– 5 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue-tie
We have also cross-checked a wider set of supporting indicators including last-time-out ratings bands, recent placing profiles, chase experience and recency windows. These do not override the core trends, but they help refine the shortlist and highlight the strongest overall profiles.
These are not coincidences, they are repeatable patterns. Every runner in this year’s race has been put through our Turf Talk Eliminator, removing those who don’t fit the winning profile. The remaining runners are then scored using our ratings system, incorporating trends, form, trainer and jockey performance and race conditions. This gives us a data-led shortlist and final selections with a proven edge.
Key Grand National Trends
• 33/34 winners rated 137+
• 32/34 ran within 55 days
• 30/34 won over 3m+
• 25/34 carried 10-13 or less
• 23/34 aged 10 or younger
• 22/34 finished top 4 last time out
• 20/34 Irish-bred
• 14/34 Irish-trained (11 of last 19)
• 16/28 had National-type race form
• 26/28 had fallen no more than twice
• 19/20 recent winners were rated 137+ last time out
• 18/20 had won within their last 9 starts
• 20/20 were off a break of 20 to 83 days
• 20/20 ran in 7 to 27 chase races
• 18/20 had not fallen during the current season
These trends form the core of our eliminator model, with the wider supporting trends used to separate the strongest profiles from the statistical false positives.
The Turf Talk Eliminator
After applying the core trends, a large number of runners are immediately ruled out.
To qualify for the final shortlist, horses needed to:
- Be rated 137+
- Have proven stamina over 3m+
- Have run within the last 55 days
- Sit within the key age and weight ranges
- Show strong recent form
We then used the wider support trends such as last-time-out rating bands, chase-run volumes, recency windows and recent placing profiles to refine the field further.
After applying these filters, the following runners stand out as the strongest statistical fits. These runners match the overwhelming majority of winning trends and form the core shortlist.
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Trend Matches
Runners ranked by how closely they match the historical Grand National winning profile, based on the core trends first and then the wider support trends.
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti Couleurs | 95% | Ideal age, right recent run, proven stamina, strong overall profile | Weight slightly above the classic sweet spot | ELITE PROFILE |
| Iroko | 93% | Excellent age fit, solid recent runs, progressive staying profile | No standout Aintree win angle | VERY STRONG |
| Stellar Story | 92% | Ideal age, ideal weight zone, strong rating support, solid profile | Course evidence limited | STRONG CONTENDER |
| Johnnywho | 91% | Very strong age and weight fit, progressive profile, current prep ideal | Less exposed than some of the old-school National types | SOLID FIT |
| Captain Cody | 89% | Good age and weight fit, Irish-trained, strong general profile | Just short of the very top trend tier | SHORTLIST |
| Final Orders | 87% | Excellent weight and recent profile, support trends strong | Core age and class profile not quite as strong as the top ones | FRINGE PLAYER |
95%+ = Elite trend match | 90–94% = Strong contender | Below 90% = Needs improvement in profile
Turf Talk Ratings
TOP 15 + KEY TREND SNAPSHOT
The rating is calculated using the full Turf Talk model. The columns below highlight key trends alongside trainer and jockey form.
| Horse | Rating | Age | Weight | Stamina | Recent | Trainer | Jockey | Headgear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I Am Maximus (8/1) | 238 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | p |
| Haiti Couleurs (20/1) | 231 | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | — |
| Iroko (16/1) | 226 | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | t |
| Gerri Colombe 33/1) | 224 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | p |
| Stellar Story (33/1) | 221 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓✓ | tb |
| Jagwar (10/1) | 219 | ? | ✓ | ? | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | tp1 |
| Grangeclare West (12/1) | 217 | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | — |
| Banbridge (50/1) | 214 | ✗ | ✗ | ? | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | v |
| Johnnywho (16/1) | 212 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | w2 tp |
| Captain Cody (20/1) | 208 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | — |
| Final Orders (25/1) | 206 | ✗ | ✓ | ? | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | — |
| Panic Attack (14/1) | 204 | ✗ | ✓ | ? | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | — |
| Beauport (100/1) | 202 | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | △ | ✓✓ | ✗ | w2 t1 |
| Mr Vango (100/1) | 201 | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | △ | ✗ | ✓ | tp |
| Oscars Brother (50/1) | 200 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ? | ? | — |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | ? = unproven
Final Selections
Haiti Couleurs (20/1 available)
A standout on the updated eliminator and a horse that fits the vast majority of the key Grand National trends. Strong recent form, ideal age profile and proven stamina make him one of the most solid contenders in the field.
Iroko (16/1 available)
Another who scores extremely well across both the eliminator and the full ratings model. He has the right shape for the race and comes here with the kind of progressive staying profile that often goes close in a modern National.
Stellar Story (33/1 available)
A bigger price, but one that fits the core trends far better than many in the market realise. The age, weight and overall profile make him a lively outsider to outrun his odds.
