Date: Saturday 8th April 2017
The Grand National takes place this Saturday at Aintree and, as always, I have gone back to my tried and tested trends and ratings approach to narrow down this year’s field.
Using the original Turf Talk methodology, based on the old Computerace principles, I have combined historical trends with race profiling to produce a set of ratings for this year’s leading contenders.
The aim, as always, is to reduce a very competitive field into a small group of realistic contenders and from there identify a main selection along with two back-up picks.
TURF TALK RATINGS - LEADING CONTENDERS
| Horse | Turf Talk Rating |
|---|---|
| One For Arthur | 214 |
| Blaklion | 206 |
| The Last Samuri | 191 |
| Cause Of Causes | 186 |
| Vieux Lion Rouge | 181 |
| Saint Are | 174 |
| Ucello Conti | 169 |
These ratings are derived from a blend of historical Grand National trends, chase experience, class, official mark, trainer and jockey profile, and general suitability for a race of this nature.
Historically, the winner usually comes from towards the top end of the ratings and that is the route taken again this year.
MAIN SELECTION
One For Arthur (16/1)
This one comes out clear top on the Turf Talk Ratings and looks to have a very solid profile for the race.
He arrives with the right sort of preparation, has plenty of chasing experience and looks the type who will relish a thorough stamina test. His profile suggests he has been aimed at a race like this and he fits the trends better than most.
There is a lot to like about his overall make-up and he looks the one to beat.
BACKUP SELECTION 1
Blaklion (14/1)
A very obvious contender and one that also rates highly on the numbers.
He has strong staying credentials, excellent form in major handicaps and looks sure to be well suited by the demands of the National. He has a touch of class, comes here in good order and makes plenty of appeal as a major player.
If the main selection underperforms, he looks one of the most likely to capitalise.
BACKUP SELECTION 2
The Last Samuri (20/1)
Last year’s runner-up is hard to leave out and again makes the shortlist on profile.
He is proven in the race, stays well and has the right type of experience for an event like this. Repeat efforts are never guaranteed in the Grand National, but he showed last year that he handles the test and he looks capable of going close again.
He may not have quite the same upside as the top two in the ratings, but his course suitability gives him every chance of being involved.
SUMMARY
This looks another highly competitive Grand National, but the ratings suggest that One For Arthur, Blaklion and The Last Samuri are the three that stand out most strongly.
One For Arthur gets the nod as the main selection, with Blaklion and The Last Samuri looking the best of the alternatives in a race where stamina, jumping and experience will be absolutely vital.
