Scottish Grand National 2026
The Scottish Grand National is one of the most demanding staying handicaps of the jumps season and it usually rewards a very specific type of horse.
At Turf Talk, every runner has been assessed against proven historical race trends before being ranked using our Turf Talk ratings model. The trends identify the right type of horse, the ratings rank the strongest profiles, and the final filter helps isolate the runners most likely to cope with a searching test around Ayr.
This final update includes confirmed runners, jockey bookings, current trainer and jockey form, plus the latest going update of soft, which places even more emphasis on stamina, toughness and jumping reliability.
Key Scottish Grand National Trends
• 11/11 winners were rated 135+
• 9/11 winners were aged between 7 and 10
• 9/11 winners carried between 10-00 and 11-03
• 10/11 winners ran within the last 35 days
• 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
• 8/11 winners had at least 7 runs over 24f+
• 9/11 winners had at least 1 previous win over 24f+
• 10/11 winners had at least 5 chase runs
• 8/11 winners had at least 2 chase wins
• 19/20 winners achieved an RPR of 132+ on their last win
• 20/20 winners ran in 4 to 22 chase races
These core trends are then supported by wider factors including current trainer form, jockey form, going suitability, course record and recent profile.
Turf Talk Trend Match + Ratings
Trend Match % reflects how closely each runner matches the historical Scottish Grand National winner profile. Ratings shown on our established 200+ Turf Talk scale.
| Horse | Trend Match | Rating | Age | Weight | Ground | Trainer | Jockey | Key Positives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quebecois | 95% | 231 | 7 | 11-13 | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | Ideal age, Ayr winner, Cobden booked, excellent all-round profile | TOP RATED |
| Montregard | 93% | 228 | 7 | 11-1 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | Ideal age, progressive, trainer flying, soft ground a major plus | MAIN DANGER |
| Isaac Des Obeaux | 91% | 223 | 8 | 11-8 | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Progressive type, strong stable, very solid profile | STRONG CONTENDER |
| King Of Answers | 92% | 226 | 7 | 11-12 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | Strong staying profile, ideal age, Derek Fox booked | SHORTLIST |
| Famous Bridge | 89% | 218 | 10 | 11-1 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Trainer flying, proven stamina, soft ground ideal | VALUE PLAY |
| Road To Home | 87% | 214 | 7 | 11-6 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✗ | Right age and fair profile, strong connections | PLACE CHANCE |
| Maximilian | 86% | 212 | 10 | 11-1 | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Consistent profile, yard in form | OUTSIDER |
| Chasingouttheblues | 85% | 210 | 7 | 10-9 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Low weight, improving type, right age | LIVE OUTSIDER |
95%+ = elite match | 90-94% = strong contender | below 90% = needs extra positives elsewhere
Final Selections
Quebecois (12/1)
The strongest overall fit on the final Turf Talk model. He has the right age profile, proven Ayr form and comes here from an in-form stable with Harry Cobden booked. Top weight is the obvious concern, but he still looks the most complete contender.
Montregard (12/1)
Now looks a major player with soft ground in his favour. The trainer and jockey stats are excellent, the weight is attractive and he still has the profile of a progressive horse who can improve again in a race like this.
Isaac Des Obeaux (10/1)
A very solid third choice and one whose profile becomes more appealing when stable form is factored in. Paul Nicholls is going well, he still has the look of a progressive staying handicapper, and he makes more appeal than some of the other shorter-priced contenders.
Verdict
Quebecois (12/1) rates as the strongest overall fit on the final Turf Talk model, with Montregard (12/1) now looking the main danger on soft ground, while Isaac Des Obeaux gets the nod for third ahead of King Of Answers thanks to stronger current stable form. My advice would be each way bets on the top 2 here.
