Ascot Stakes 2026 Preview
The Ascot Stakes is a race very close to our hearts. As many of you will know by now I take this opportunity every year to talk about our very own Sweet Glow, who won this race back in 1994, pulling off a monster gamble that was described in the press as “the biggest plot since Guy Fawkes”.
It remains one of the greatest days we have ever had in racing, and this is also a race where Turf Talk has enjoyed an excellent record when it comes to finding the winner.
Run over 2m4f on good to firm ground, this is a proper Royal Ascot stamina test. Trends matter, staying power matters, handicap marks matter, and in a race like this, a cleverly prepared horse can often be worth far more than the obvious form horse.
Sweet Glow – Ascot Stakes Memories
Key Ascot Stakes Trends
- Experience: 20/20 winners had run in 11-46 career races.
- Winning Level: 20/20 winners held an OR of 72+ when recording their last win.
- RPR: 20/20 winners achieved an RPR of 86+ on their most recent win.
- Stamina: 20/20 winners had placed over 1m4f-2m2½f.
- Handicap Profile: 20/20 winners had run in 1-23 handicaps.
- Speed: 20/20 winners achieved a TS of 55+ in their last 3 starts and 62+ in their last 5.
- Recent Winning Form: 20/20 winners had won within their last 9 starts.
- Year Profile: 20/20 winners had run in 3-11 races within the last year.
The pure trends shortlist is headed by Lavender Hill Mob and Westminster Moon, who both achieved a perfect 15/15 match. Annabel’s Ghost, Bahadur, Galileo Dame, Glenroyal, Mordor, Puturhandstogether and Small Fry all scored strongly on 14/15.
Turf Talk Eliminator + Ratings
| Horse | Trends % | Rating | OR/RPR | Class | Stamina | Recent | Trainer | Going/Course | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavender Hill Mob | 100% | 241 | 94 / 112 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | △ | ✓✓✓ | △ | Perfect 15/15 trends match, best RPR in the field, strong TS figure and James Owen yard in good form. | Recent finishing position was not ideal and needs to show stamina lasts out fully. | Main selection |
| Westminster Moon | 100% | 237 | 92 / 101 | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | △ | ? | Perfect 15/15 trends match, arrives off a win, good TS profile and A J Martin has placed runners in this race before. | Raw RPR is lower than several rivals and trainer form is quiet. | Main danger |
| Bahadur | 93% | 234 | 94 / 109 | ✓✓✓ | ? | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | △ | Strong trends match, recent winner, solid RPR/TS combination and unexposed staying profile. | Needs to fully prove stamina for this extreme trip. | Shortlist |
| Annabel’s Ghost | 93% | 232 | 91 / 108 | ✓✓ | ? | ✓✓ | △ | ✓ | Strong trends profile, useful RPR and enough staying promise to be interesting. | Limited UK evidence and needs everything to fall right. | Big player |
| Reaching High | 73% | 231 | 94 / 104 | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | △ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore combination, strongly respected in this race and shaped like a stayer of real interest. | Lower trends score and long absence from the Flat. | Major danger |
| Bunting | 87% | 229 | 98 / 108 | ✓✓ | ? | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | Willie Mullins angle, strong trainer record in the race and solid RPR/TS profile. | Needs to translate jumping fitness back to a strongly-run Flat handicap. | Shortlist |
| Mordor | 93% | 228 | 94 / 103 | ✓✓ | △ | ✓✓✓ | △ | ✓✓ | Strong trends score, recent winning profile over jumps and has enough hidden upside. | Gordon Elliott yard has been quiet in the supplied data. | Interesting |
| Defiantly | 73% | 225 | 94 / 107 | ✓✓ | ? | △ | ✓✓ | △ | Potentially well treated, James Doyle booked and has enough upside to outrun odds. | Trend score is not as strong and needs to improve on recent form. | Value angle |
| Small Fry | 93% | 224 | 92 / 105 | ✓✓ | ? | △ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Strong trends match and Oisin Murphy is a positive booking. | Recent Flat form is not strong enough to top the list. | Place chance |
| Puturhandstogether | 93% | 223 | 92 / 108 | ✓✓ | ? | △ | ✓✓ | ? | Strong trends score, useful RPR and Joseph O’Brien can target this sort of race well. | Needs to show he truly wants this trip. | Place chance |
| Galileo Dame | 93% | 222 | 94 / 109 | ✓✓ | ? | △ | ✓✓ | ? | Good trends score, Colin Keane booked and a strong enough ratings profile. | Recent form does not scream winner. | Place chance |
| Barnso | 87% | 221 | 96 / 105 | ✓✓ | ✓ | △ | ✓✓ | △ | Alan King has won this race, strong TS figure and some staying promise. | Latest form needs improvement. | Possible |
| Siempre Arturo | 87% | 220 | 94 / 106 | ✓✓ | ✓ | △ | △ | ✓ | Strong TS profile and enough back form to be competitive. | Trainer course record in the supplied data is not encouraging. | Needs more |
| Glenroyal | 93% | 219 | 93 / 105 | ✓ | ? | △ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Strong trends score and lightly weighted. | Needs a step forward on raw figures. | Needs more |
| Ismahane | 60% | 217 | 93 / 108 | ✓✓ | ? | ✓ | ✓ | ? | Interesting unknown profile with a good RPR figure. | Lowest trends score of the main group and limited evidence. | Risk/reward |
| Beylerbeyi | 67% | 215 | 100 / 106 | ✓✓ | ? | △ | ✗ | ✓ | Top weight with solid RPR/TS figures and proven good-to-firm form. | Trainer form is a major concern and stamina is unproven. | Opposable |
| Comfort Zone | 73% | 213 | 94 / 106 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✗ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Has stamina and course experience. | Recent form is very hard to support. | Needs revival |
| Kizlyar | 73% | 212 | 92 / 104 | ✓ | ? | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ? | Recent winner and could be open to more improvement. | TS figure is weak and stamina unknown. | Needs more |
| Tim Toe | 73% | 211 | 91 / 104 | ✓ | ? | ✓✓✓ | △ | ? | Recent winner and potential handicap improver. | Needs to improve on the clock and prove the trip. | Outsider |
| All In You | 80% | 210 | 91 / – | ? | ? | △ | ✗ | ? | Unexposed handicap profile and could have more hidden ability than the figures show. | Very little Flat evidence and trainer form is quiet. | Hard to assess |
Key: ✓✓✓ strong positive, ✓✓ positive, ✓ acceptable, △ slight concern, ✗ negative, ? unknown or limited data.
Final Turf Talk Filter
This is exactly the type of race where the obvious favourite can be dangerous, but the winner often comes from a deeper trends-and-stats profile.
Lavender Hill Mob comes out narrowly on top. He is a perfect 15/15 trends match, has the highest RPR in the field and a strong Topspeed figure. At a big price, he looks exactly the type of runner who could be underestimated in a race like this.
Westminster Moon is the other perfect trends horse and has to be taken seriously. His raw ratings are not quite as compelling, but he arrives off a win and fits the historical shape of the race very well.
Bahadur makes strong appeal as a progressive contender with a 14/15 trends match and a solid ratings profile, while Reaching High is the obvious Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore danger despite not matching the strongest trends horses.
Ascot Stakes 2026 Tips
1. Lavender Hill Mob 50/1
Lavender Hill Mob is the Turf Talk selection after achieving a perfect 15/15 trends match and topping the field on Racing Post Ratings.
He also has a strong Topspeed profile and represents a stable in good form. In a race famous for plots, staying angles and hidden improvement, he looks far too interesting to ignore.
2. Westminster Moon 14/1
Westminster Moon is the other perfect trends match and arrives here off a win.
His raw rating is not as strong as the selection, but his profile is exactly the sort that can run well in this race, and he deserves major respect.
3. Bahadur 28/1
Bahadur has a strong 14/15 trends match, arrives in winning form and still has a potentially progressive staying profile.
He needs to prove the full stamina test, but he is one of the more appealing runners outside the obvious Mullins angle.
Turf Talk Verdict
Lavender Hill Mob is the selection, with Westminster Moon the other perfect trends horse and Bahadur a strong progressive contender. Reaching High is the obvious danger from the Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore angle.
Final Selection
Lavender Hill Mob 50/1
The trends, ratings and final filter point narrowly towards Lavender Hill Mob as the strongest Turf Talk play in the 2026 Ascot Stakes.
1st: Lavender Hill Mob 50/1
2nd: Westminster Moon 14/1
3rd: Bahadur 28/1
Big Danger: Reaching High
Final note: in a race like the Ascot Stakes, stamina, pace, jockey positioning and late market strength can be especially important.
