Topham Chase 2026 Preview
The Topham is always one of the trickiest races of the meeting, but the trends do help narrow things down and there is usually a clear type that goes well.
This race tends to reward runners with enough recent activity, a solid handicap speed profile and, ideally, the right age and jumping experience for the National fences.
For example:
– 20 of the last 20 winners ran in 4-10 races that season
– 20 of the last 20 came from within the first 23 in the market
– 20 of the last 20 achieved an RPR of 133+ in handicaps
– 20 of the last 20 achieved a TS of 109+ in handicaps
– 18 of the last 20 winners were no older than 10
– 18 of the last 20 had no more than 2 falls in their career
Every runner has been put through the Turf Talk Eliminator, then the shortlist has been refined through the ratings model using recent figures, trainer and jockey form and suitability to the race conditions.
Key Topham Chase Trends
• 20/20 winners ran in 4-10 races that season
• 20/20 were within the first 23 in the market
• 20/20 achieved a TS of 64+ on their last win
• 20/20 ran in 1-3 races in the last 90 days
• 20/20 achieved an RPR of 133+ in handicaps
• 20/20 achieved a TS of 109+ in handicaps
• 18/20 winners were no older than 10
• 18/20 had no more than 2 falls in their career
• 17/20 had won by at least 1 length on their last win
These trends form the core of the eliminator, with course and trainer angles used as supporting factors rather than the main driver.
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Trend Matches
Runners ranked by how closely they match the historical Topham Chase profile.
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madara | 95% | Right age, strong handicap figures, stable and jockey both major positives | No previous Aintree fences experience | ELITE PROFILE |
| Will The Wise | 93% | Good age, right recent profile, strong handicap figures | Rider claim and experience add a little uncertainty | VERY STRONG |
| Gentleman De Mee | 91% | Course winner, plenty of class, solid recent profile | Age slightly against the strongest trend band | STRONG CONTENDER |
| Viroflay | 89% | Light weight, solid profile, trainer angle strong | Going record not ideal | SOLID FIT |
| Primoz | 88% | Recent winner, right age, decent profile at the weights | Stable not in the strongest form | SHORTLIST |
95%+ = Elite trend match | 90–94% = Strong contender | Below 90% = Needs improvement in profile
Turf Talk Ratings
TOP 10 + KEY TREND SNAPSHOT
The rating is calculated using the full Turf Talk model.
| Horse | Rating | Age | Recent | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madara | 236 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Will The Wise | 231 | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Gentleman De Mee | 227 | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Viroflay | 223 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✗ |
| Primoz | 219 | ✓ | ✓ | △ | ✓ |
| Bill Baxter | 216 | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Booster Bob | 213 | ✓ | △ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ |
| Matata | 210 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✗ |
| Excello | 207 | ✓ | ✗ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Prairie Wolf | 204 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | △ = partial
Final Selections
Madara
He comes out top on the Turf Talk figures, ticking the strongest Topham trends and bringing the sort of handicap profile that often goes very close in this race.
Will The Wise
Another who scores strongly on the numbers and makes plenty of appeal on the current profile.
Gentleman De Mee
The course angle is a clear plus and the class is there if he can put everything together on the day.
Verdict Summary
Verdict: Madara (11/2) is the selection on the Turf Talk figures, with Will The Wise (10/1) the main danger and Gentleman De Mee (10/1) another who makes enough appeal to be kept firmly on side.
