Melling Chase 2026 Preview
This is usually one of the classiest races of the meeting and one where the trends point us firmly towards proven Grade 1 operators with the right speed and recent ratings.
The Melling Chase tends to reward quality more than guesswork. The winner is often already established at the top level and simply needs the right current profile.
For example:
– 20 of the last 20 winners achieved a TS of 145+ during the season
– 20 of the last 20 achieved a TS of 125+ on their last win
– 20 of the last 20 were no bigger than 14/1
– 20 of the last 20 achieved an RPR of 149+ last time out
– 20 of the last 20 had their highest placed effort in a Grade 1
– 20 of the last 20 achieved an RPR of 157+ in this class band
Every runner has been put through the Turf Talk Eliminator, with the shortlist then refined through the ratings model, blending the trends with recent form and trainer and jockey performance.
Key Melling Chase Trends
• 20/20 winners achieved a TS of 145+ during the season
• 20/20 achieved a TS of 125+ on their last win
• 20/20 were no bigger than 14/1
• 20/20 achieved an RPR of 149+ last time out
• 20/20 had their highest placed effort in a Grade 1
• 20/20 achieved an RPR of 157+ in this class band
• 20/20 ran in 13-39 non-handicap races
• 20/20 were not GB-bred
These trends form the core of the eliminator, with trainer and jockey form used as supporting factors rather than the main driver.
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Trend Matches
Runners ranked by how closely they match the historical Melling Chase profile.
| Horse | Trends Match | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Wood | 96% | Top-class recent figures, ideal trend fit, strong current profile | Course record not a major plus | ELITE PROFILE |
| Grey Dawning | 94% | High-class profile, strong recent figures, ideal team angle | Recent run not quite as strong as the top one | VERY STRONG |
| L’Eau du Sud | 92% | Excellent ratings base, top-grade profile, strong stable | Distance still not his absolute ideal on evidence | STRONG CONTENDER |
| JPR One | 89% | Strong distance record, solid class profile | Trainer and jockey form less convincing | SHORTLIST |
95%+ = Elite trend match | 90–94% = Strong contender | Below 90% = Needs improvement in profile
Turf Talk Ratings
FULL FIELD + KEY TREND SNAPSHOT
The rating is calculated using the full Turf Talk model.
| Horse | Rating | Recent | Distance | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Wood | 238 | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Grey Dawning | 234 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| L’Eau du Sud | 229 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ |
| JPR One | 223 | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✗ |
| Solness | 218 | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Saint Segal | 214 | △ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Gidleigh Park | 210 | ✗ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | △ = partial
Final Selections
Heart Wood
He comes out top on the Turf Talk figures, bringing the strongest recent profile into the race and matching the core Melling Chase trends more cleanly than the rest.
Grey Dawning
A very solid alternative, especially with the strength of the Skelton team and the quality of his overall form profile.
L’Eau du Sud
Another who fits the race well on the numbers and should not be overlooked if reproducing his best level.
Verdict Summary
Verdict: Heart Wood (6/4) gets the vote on the Turf Talk figures, with Grey Dawning the main danger and L’Eau du Sud (16/1) another who makes plenty of appeal in a race where class usually comes to the fore. I am going to go win Heart Wood with each way on L’Eau du Sud as a saver.
