4:05 Aintree – Aintree Hurdle
This is usually one of the highest-quality hurdle races of the entire meeting and, more often than not, the trends point us firmly towards proven Grade 1 performers rather than hidden outsiders.
The profile is actually quite tight. Most winners are aged between 6 and 8, almost all come here after a recent run at Cheltenham, and class is absolutely vital with 10 of the last 11 winners rated 158 or higher. Perhaps most importantly of all, every one of the last 11 winners had already won a Grade 1.
That makes this a race where the Turf Talk ratings can be very effective, because there is far less room for guesswork. The winner is usually already well established at the top level and just needs the right current profile to go with that class.
Key Trends
- 10/11 winners aged 6-8
- 11/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- 10/11 winners ran within the last 30 days
- 7/11 winners came from the Champion Hurdle
- 10/11 winners were rated 158 or higher
- 11/11 winners had at least 1 previous Grade 1 win
- 11/11 winners had at least 4 wins over hurdles
- 10/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season
Turf Talk Eliminator – Top Profiles
| Horse | Trends Match | Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighterdaysahead | 96% | Ideal age, top class profile, course form, right rating band | Trainer form average | ELITE PROFILE |
| The New Lion | 94% | Strong age fit, excellent going and distance record, right rating | Course form lacking | VERY STRONG |
| Potters Charm | 92% | Ideal age, course and distance winner, strong recent form | Going record not ideal | STRONG |
| Alexei | 89% | Age on side, strong rating, proven at the trip | Going and jockey form concerns | CONTENDER |
| Golden Ace | 87% | Going and distance positives, age fits | Rating below ideal | SHORTLIST |
| El Fabiolo | 85% | Big-race yard and jockey, recent win | Age and profile less ideal for this race | SHORTLIST |
Turf Talk Ratings – Full Field
The rating is calculated using the full Turf Talk model. The columns below highlight key trends alongside trainer and jockey form.
| Horse | Rating | Age | Distance | Recent | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighterdaysahead | 236 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| The New Lion | 234 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Potters Charm | 226 | ✓ | ✓ | △ | ✓✓ | ✗ |
| Alexei | 220 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓ | ✗ |
| Golden Ace | 218 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| El Fabiolo | 214 | ✗ | △ | △ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ |
| Lucky Place | 209 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓✓ |
✓ = positive | ✓✓ = strong | ✓✓✓ = excellent | ✗ = negative | △ = partial
Turf Talk Selections
The New Lion gets the vote here, bringing a near-perfect profile into the race alongside the huge advantage of a red-hot trainer and jockey combination. With Dan Skelton operating at a 24% strike rate and Harry Skelton riding at 33%, this looks a horse arriving at exactly the right time. 2nd rated but with just 2 points between the top two I am siding with one of my favourites.
Brighterdaysahead still rates extremely highly on the numbers and is clearly a major danger, particularly with the class and course form she brings into the race.
Potters Charm is another that fits the race well and cannot be ignored, especially with proven course and distance form.
Verdict: The New Lion is the selection, with Brighterdaysahead the main threat and Potters Charm completing the shortlist.
