Scottish Grand National 2026
The Scottish Grand National is one of the toughest staying handicaps of the jumps season and it usually rewards a very specific type of horse.
At Turf Talk, we do not rely on form alone. Every runner is assessed against a proven set of historical race trends before being ranked using our Turf Talk ratings model.
The trends identify the right type of horse. The ratings help rank the strongest profiles. The final review then helps us decide which horses look best suited to the demands of a race like this.
For this early trial version, the percentages below reflect the proportion of applicable trends matched by each runner using the data currently available. As we get closer to final declarations, those figures can be refined further with the full data set.
Key Scottish Grand National Trends
• 11/11 winners were rated 135+
• 9/11 winners were aged between 7 and 10
• 9/11 winners carried between 10-00 and 11-03
• 10/11 winners ran within the last 35 days
• 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
• 8/11 winners had at least 7 runs over 24f+
• 9/11 winners had at least 1 win over 24f+
• 10/11 winners had at least 5 chase runs
• 8/11 winners had at least 2 chase wins
We also apply a wider set of supporting trends behind the scenes, including recent winning profile, ratings bands, experience ranges and other historical indicators, to build a fuller percentage match for each runner.
Turf Talk Trend Match + Ratings
Trend Match % is based on the proportion of applicable trends matched using the current runner data available. Ratings then help rank the strongest overall profiles.
| Horse | Trend Match | Rating | Age | Weight | Stamina | Recent | Trainer | Jockey | Key Positives | Negatives | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnywho | 96% | 232 | 9 | 10-13 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Excellent age and weight fit, strong rating, recent profile solid, progressive staying type | Extreme stamina test still needs confirming at the very top level | LEADING CONTENDER |
| Isaac Des Obeaux | 95% | 228 | 8 | 10-0 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Ideal age and weight, arrives progressive, strong current yard form, profile of a proper staying handicap horse | Needs to prove himself in a race quite this deep and demanding | LEADING CONTENDER |
| Montregard | 94% | 225 | 7 | 9-7 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | Very appealing age, progressive profile, trainer in excellent form, looks the right race type | Still has to prove his class against the strongest in the field | STRONG CONTENDER |
| King Of Answers | 92% | 222 | 7 | 10-4 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Good age and weight, solid recent form, strong staying profile, rating in the right zone | Does not quite have the same standout edge as the top three | STRONG CONTENDER |
| Quebecois | 91% | 220 | 7 | 10-5 | ✓✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | Very solid trend fit, consistent profile, course winner, strong trainer angle | More solid than spectacular and may lack a little upside compared to the very best profiles | SHORTLIST |
| Konfusion | 90% | 221 | 8 | 10-6 | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | △ | ✓ | Right age, right weight zone, improving profile, ratings stack up well | Last-time-out fall is an obvious caution in a race that demands jumping reliability | SHORTLIST |
| Brave Fortune | 89% | 215 | 7 | 9-13 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Good age, nice weight, progressive shape, generally strong fit to the race trends | Stamina still not quite as secure as some of the stronger stayers above him | INTERESTING OUTSIDER |
| Top Of The Bill | 88% | 212 | 10 | 10-7 | ✓✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Proven stamina, experienced, solid rating, plenty in his profile to like for a race of this nature | Age is fine rather than ideal and he may be more exposed than some of the younger improvers | INTERESTING OUTSIDER |
| Havaila | 87% | 210 | 7 | 9-7 | ✓✓ | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Nicely weighted, young enough to improve, recent form strong enough to enter calculations | Needs to prove he belongs with the strongest staying handicap profiles in the field | INTERESTING OUTSIDER |
| Road To Home | 86% | 208 | 7 | 9-12 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Age right, weight okay, useful recent profile, from a yard always respected in these races | Needs another step forward and does not look quite as complete as the top-ranked runners | NEEDS MORE |
| Banbridge | 81% | 214 | 10 | 12-0 | ✓✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Classiest horse on figures and brings plenty of raw ability | Top weight, wrong race shape, and not the obvious profile for a test like this | NEEDS MORE |
95%+ = elite trend match | 90-94% = strong contender | 85-89% = solid profile | below 85% = needs more compensation elsewhere
Final Selections
Johnnywho
He comes out as the strongest overall match on this early Version 2 model, combining an excellent trend percentage with a very strong Turf Talk Rating. The age, weight and recent profile all sit in the right areas, and he looks exactly the type this race often rewards.
Isaac Des Obeaux
A very appealing second choice and one whose profile makes plenty of sense for a staying handicap like this. He is progressive, well treated on the current view, and the Paul Nicholls angle adds further confidence.
Montregard
The trainer form catches the eye immediately, but there is more to him than that. He has the age and progressive shape you want in this race and looks a very live contender if taking another step forward.
Verdict
At this early stage, Johnnywho rates as the strongest overall fit, with Isaac Des Obeaux a major danger and Montregard another who makes plenty of appeal on both trends and ratings.
